Tue, Mar 5, 2013·STAPLES Center, Los Angeles
St. Louis Blues 4, Los Angeles Kings 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 86% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 27 | 23 | 04 | 414 |
| LAK | 18 | 16 | 415 | 629 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 15:09STLAlex PietrangeloAssists: Chris Stewart · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–0
- P1 15:52LAKJake MuzzinAssists: Drew Doughty, Justin Williams · Slap, 0.02 xG1–1
- P1 18:50STLVladimir SobotkaAssists: Barret Jackman, Matt D'Agostini · Tip-in, 0.07 xG2–1
- P2 1:14STLDavid PerronAssists: Alex Pietrangelo, Barret Jackman · Deflected, 0.10 xG3–1
- P2 6:31STLChris StewartAssists: David Perron, Patrik Berglund · Backhand, 0.07 xG4–1
- P2 13:38LAKSlava VoynovAssists: Anze Kopitar, Justin Williams · Slap, 0.03 xG4–2
- P3 1:33LAKMike RichardsAssists: Dustin Penner · Wrist, 0.44 xG4–3
- P3 2:32LAKJake MuzzinAssists: Drew Doughty, Trevor Lewis · Snap, 0.03 xG4–4
- P3 6:09LAKJeff CarterGWGAssists: Jake Muzzin, Mike Richards · Snap, 0.05 xG4–5
- P3 14:51LAKAnze KopitarAssists: Justin Williams, Dustin Brown · Wrist, 0.05 xG4–6
Penalties (18)
- P1 9:04LAKColin Fraser: Fighting5 min
- P1 9:04STLBarret Jackman: Fighting5 min
- P1 9:07STLRoman Polak: Fighting5 min
- P1 9:07LAKKyle Clifford: Fighting5 min
- P1 9:07STLChris Stewart: Slashing2 min
- P1 9:31STLDavid Backes: Roughing2 min
- P1 9:31LAKDustin Penner: Slashing2 min
- P1 9:31LAKDustin Penner: Roughing2 min
- P1 11:03STLDavid Perron: Tripping2 min
- P1 15:56LAKDwight King: Fighting5 min
- P1 15:56STLRyan Reaves: Fighting5 min
- P2 3:10LAKJarret Stoll: Slashing2 min
- P2 14:21STLRoman Polak: Holding2 min
- P2 17:58STLRoman Polak: Boarding2 min
- P3 6:55LAKDrew Doughty: Holding the stick2 min
- P3 7:41STLDavid Backes: Slashing2 min
- P3 8:17LAKAnze Kopitar: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P3 9:35STLT.J. Oshie: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Backes won the faceoff against Kopitar
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestStewart – Berglund – Perron7:44
xG 0.36–0.18 (67%)attempts 10–6goals 3–1
- Porter – Sobotka – D'Agostini7:02
xG 0.22–0.10 (68%)attempts 5–3goals 1–0
- Nichol – Cracknell – Reaves4:34
xG 0.01–0.02 (35%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Backes – Oshie – Schwartz9:33
xG 0.05–0.18 (21%)attempts 2–7goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Jackman – Pietrangelo12:10
xG 0.27–0.22 (55%)attempts 8–6goals 2–1
- Polak – Russell10:38
xG 0.13–0.25 (34%)attempts 3–9goals 1–0
- Cole – Shattenkirk14:29
xG 0.08–0.84 (9%)attempts 5–13goals 0–3
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestCarter – Richards – Penner9:31
xG 0.70–0.20 (78%)attempts 6–5goals 2–2
- Williams – Brown – Kopitar10:53
xG 0.44–0.09 (82%)attempts 16–4goals 4–0
- Stoll – Lewis – King9:14
xG 0.07–0.05 (59%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Fraser – Clifford – Nolan4:02
xG 0.05–0.08 (38%)attempts 1–2goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestScuderi – Voynov15:36
xG 0.69–0.27 (72%)attempts 11–10goals 1–2
- Muzzin – Doughty16:27
xG 0.59–0.34 (64%)attempts 17–9goals 4–2
- Martinez – Ellerby7:04
xG 0.13–0.00 (96%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
LAK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line LAK is favoured, below it STL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 86% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (LAK − STL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).