Wed, Mar 6, 2013·Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary
San Jose Sharks 1, Calgary Flames 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 59% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJS | 08 | 18 | 017 | 133 |
| CGY | 19 | 011 | 36 | 426 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:27CGYRoman CervenkaAssists: Jay Bouwmeester, Jarome Iginla · Wrist, 0.10 xG0–1
- P2 13:53SJSJoe ThorntonAssists: Joe Pavelski · Wrist, 0.23 xG1–1
- P3 2:57CGYBlake ComeauGWGAssists: Chris Butler, TJ Brodie · Snap, 0.02 xG1–2
- P3 4:36CGYJarome IginlaAssists: Jiri Hudler · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–3
- P3 19:04CGYCurtis GlencrossENAssists: Lee Stempniak, Dennis Wideman · Wrist, 0.79 xG1–4
Penalties (7)
- P1 9:36CGYRoman Cervenka: Hooking2 min
- P1 12:18SJSBrad Stuart: Hooking2 min
- P1 15:36CGYMichael Cammalleri: Hooking2 min
- P2 9:05SJSBrad Stuart: Interference2 min
- P3 10:59CGYLee Stempniak: Hooking2 min
- P3 17:29CGYBlake Comeau: Interference2 min
- P3 19:44SJSScott Gomez: Delaying game face off violation2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Thornton won the faceoff against Stajan
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestGomez – Kennedy – Sheppard7:31
xG 0.63–0.35 (65%)attempts 15–10goals 0–1
- Thornton – Marleau – Pavelski12:24
xG 0.41–0.39 (51%)attempts 9–9goals 1–1
- Clowe – Galiardi – Couture12:54
xG 0.53–0.62 (46%)attempts 11–7goals 0–1
- Handzus – Burish – Desjardins3:47
xG 0.09–0.23 (29%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestStuart – Vlasic16:49
xG 1.09–0.69 (61%)attempts 22–14goals 1–1
- Boyle – Irwin12:08
xG 0.46–0.23 (67%)attempts 14–5goals 0–0
- Demers – Irwin3:08
xG 0.28–0.18 (60%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestIginla – Hudler – Cervenka11:15
xG 0.90–0.66 (58%)attempts 13–18goals 2–0
- Tanguay – Cammalleri – Baertschi6:37
xG 0.35–0.22 (61%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
- McGrattan – Jackman – Comeau3:11
xG 0.19–0.08 (69%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Stajan – Stempniak – Glencross14:12
xG 0.47–0.46 (51%)attempts 11–7goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestWideman – Butler15:32
xG 1.20–0.81 (60%)attempts 15–20goals 2–0
- Bouwmeester – Butler2:41
xG 0.02–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Bouwmeester – Giordano13:43
xG 0.30–0.35 (46%)attempts 8–8goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it SJS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 59% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CGY − SJS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).