Thu, Mar 7, 2013·TD Garden, Boston
Toronto Maple Leafs 2, Boston Bruins 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 60% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 010 | 112 | 15 | 227 |
| BOS | 19 | 26 | 110 | 425 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 19:07BOSPatrice BergeronAssists: Tyler Seguin, Brad Marchand · Wrist, 0.41 xG0–1
- P2 2:32TORNazem KadriAssists: Clarke MacArthur, Carl Gunnarsson · Tip-in, 0.03 xG1–1
- P2 7:11BOSTyler SeguinAssists: Brad Marchand, Patrice Bergeron · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–2
- P2 18:03BOSDavid KrejciGWGAssists: Andrew Ference, Milan Lucic · Backhand, 0.09 xG1–3
- P3 14:52TORJay McClementAssists: Mikhail Grabovski, Carl Gunnarsson · Tip-in, 0.16 xG2–3
- P3 19:45BOSTyler SeguinENAssists: Patrice Bergeron · Wrist, 0.73 xG2–4
Penalties (10)
- P1 3:23BOSAdam McQuaid: Fighting5 min
- P1 3:23TORMark Fraser: Fighting5 min
- P1 10:25BOSChris Kelly: Slashing2 min
- P1 12:03BOSDaniel Paille: High sticking2 min
- P2 1:22BOSBrad Marchand: Roughing2 min
- P2 1:22TORDion Phaneuf: Roughing2 min
- P2 3:16TORNikolay Kulemin: Interference2 min
- P2 18:12BOSTyler Seguin: Slashing2 min
- P3 0:32TORDion Phaneuf: Cross checking2 min
- P3 3:28TORColton Orr: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kelly won the faceoff against Kadri
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestMcClement – Grabovski – Kulemin11:23
xG 0.29–0.15 (66%)attempts 8–8goals 1–0
- MacArthur – Komarov – Kadri10:33
xG 0.30–0.26 (53%)attempts 9–9goals 0–1
- Orr – Steckel – McLaren5:25
xG 0.07–0.06 (54%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
- Kessel – van Riemsdyk – Bozak9:10
xG 0.57–0.79 (42%)attempts 10–8goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestGunnarsson – Kostka14:03
xG 0.43–0.25 (63%)attempts 10–8goals 1–1
- Phaneuf – Holzer11:36
xG 0.84–0.79 (51%)attempts 16–14goals 0–2
- Phaneuf – Franson2:56
xG 0.05–0.07 (40%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestBergeron – Marchand – Seguin10:09
xG 0.81–0.09 (90%)attempts 13–4goals 2–0
- Pandolfo – Kelly – Peverley9:35
xG 0.31–0.09 (78%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Horton – Krejci – Lucic11:24
xG 0.25–0.16 (61%)attempts 10–6goals 1–0
- Thornton – Campbell – Paille6:29
xG 0.29–0.48 (38%)attempts 5–15goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestFerence – McQuaid10:37
xG 0.60–0.13 (82%)attempts 11–8goals 0–0
- Ference – Boychuk2:20
xG 0.04–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
- Chara – Hamilton4:31
xG 0.06–0.03 (68%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BOS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BOS is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 60% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BOS − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).