Thu, Mar 7, 2013·Prudential Center, Newark
Buffalo Sabres 2, New Jersey Devils 3 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 75% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 06 | 18 | 18 | 03 | 0 | 225 |
| NJD | 011 | 08 | 211 | 03 | 2 | 333 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 7:56BUFThomas VanekPPAssists: Tyler Ennis, Steve Ott · Snap, 0.17 xG1–0
- P3 9:56BUFBrian FlynnAssists: Andrej Sekera, Marcus Foligno · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–0
- P3 13:30NJDAdam HenriquePPAssists: Ilya Kovalchuk · Wrist, 0.08 xG2–1
- P3 18:54NJDPatrik EliasAssists: David Clarkson, Andy Greene · Snap, 0.10 xG2–2
Shootout
- 1. NJD Ilya Kovalchuk stopped
- 2. BUF Thomas Vanek stopped
- 3. NJD David Clarkson scored
- 4. BUF Jason Pominville stopped
- 5. NJD Patrik Elias scored
Penalties (8)
- P1 1:26BUFTyler Ennis: High sticking2 min
- P1 2:15NJDJohan Hedberg: Interference2 min
- P1 12:15BUFMike Weber: High sticking2 min
- P2 1:11NJDMark Fayne: Holding2 min
- P2 7:16NJDAnton Volchenkov: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 12:36BUFChristian Ehrhoff: Holding2 min · PPG
- OT 4:30NJDTravis Zajac: Roughing2 min
- OT 4:30BUFTyler Ennis: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Hodgson won the faceoff against Henrique
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestPorter – Foligno – Flynn9:37
xG 0.29–0.04 (87%)attempts 12–2goals 0–0
- Pominville – Vanek – Hodgson15:26
xG 0.38–0.24 (62%)attempts 14–8goals 0–0
- Stafford – Scott – Grigorenko4:18
xG 0.13–0.06 (68%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Ott – Gerbe – Ennis11:00
xG 0.11–1.18 (9%)attempts 6–16goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBrennan – Myers2:22
xG 0.13–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Regehr – Weber4:18
xG 0.14–0.05 (73%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Ehrhoff – Myers14:50
xG 0.42–0.43 (50%)attempts 17–13goals 0–0
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestElias – Clarkson – Henrique11:36
xG 0.61–0.36 (63%)attempts 12–11goals 0–1
- Kostopoulos – Gionta – Carter8:23
xG 0.46–0.23 (66%)attempts 7–9goals 0–0
- Ponikarovsky – Kovalchuk – Zajac10:24
xG 0.33–0.20 (62%)attempts 6–11goals 0–0
- Ponikarovsky – Kovalchuk – Loktionov3:38
xG 0.12–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSalvador – Zidlicky15:45
xG 0.97–0.10 (91%)attempts 18–8goals 0–1
- Greene – Harrold11:07
xG 0.31–0.15 (67%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
- Volchenkov – Fayne6:11
xG 0.22–0.27 (45%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NJD's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NJD is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 75% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NJD − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).