Thu, Mar 7, 2013·Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia
Pittsburgh Penguins 5, Philadelphia Flyers 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 75% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 14 | 312 | 16 | 522 |
| PHI | 418 | 03 | 011 | 432 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 11:18PHIJakub VoracekPPAssists: Claude Giroux, Kimmo Timonen · Wrist, 0.06 xG0–1
- P1 12:05PITChris KunitzPPAssists: Kris Letang, Sidney Crosby · Wrist, 0.22 xG1–1
- P1 15:06PHIZac RinaldoAssists: Nicklas Grossmann, Max Talbot · Snap, 0.21 xG1–2
- P1 18:17PHIKimmo TimonenAssists: Zac Rinaldo, Ruslan Fedotenko · Snap, 0.01 xG1–3
- P1 19:52PHIJakub VoracekPPAssists: Kimmo Timonen · Snap, 0.04 xG1–4
- P2 5:30PITPascal DupuisAssists: Sidney Crosby, Chris Kunitz · Wrist, 0.27 xG2–4
- P2 8:13PITJames NealAssists: Beau Bennett · Wrist, 0.01 xG3–4
- P2 15:47PITTyler KennedyAssists: Matt Cooke, Brandon Sutter · Snap, 0.06 xG4–4
- P3 0:18PITChris KunitzGWGAssists: Sidney Crosby, Pascal Dupuis · Wrist, 0.07 xG5–4
Penalties (11)
- P1 10:45PITJames Neal: Elbowing2 min · PPG
- P1 11:18PHIScott Hartnell: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min · PPG
- P1 11:18PHIScott Hartnell: Roughing2 min
- P1 11:18PITJames Neal: Roughing2 min
- P1 13:06PITMatt Niskanen: Interference2 min
- P1 19:44PITJames Neal: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P1 0:00PHIWayne Simmonds: Roughing2 min
- P1 0:00PITTanner Glass: Roughing2 min
- P2 8:59PHILuke Schenn: Tripping2 min
- P2 16:38PHINicklas Grossmann: Interference2 min
- P3 10:13PITPascal Dupuis: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Giroux won the faceoff against Sutter
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestDupuis – Kunitz – Crosby9:29
xG 0.70–0.18 (79%)attempts 14–10goals 2–1
- Malkin – Neal – Bennett10:17
xG 0.31–0.19 (62%)attempts 14–9goals 1–0
- Adams – Glass – Jeffrey5:10
xG 0.06–0.02 (78%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Cooke – Kennedy – Sutter8:49
xG 0.11–0.08 (58%)attempts 5–7goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestOrpik – Martin16:08
xG 0.75–0.31 (71%)attempts 15–17goals 2–0
- Niskanen – Letang14:58
xG 0.26–0.17 (60%)attempts 12–10goals 0–0
- Eaton – Engelland9:55
xG 0.14–0.19 (41%)attempts 7–7goals 1–1
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestHartnell – Giroux – Voracek11:34
xG 0.30–0.12 (71%)attempts 18–11goals 0–1
- Gagne – Read – Couturier6:35
xG 0.15–0.14 (53%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
- Fedotenko – Talbot – Rinaldo5:38
xG 0.03–0.13 (17%)attempts 2–5goals 1–0
- Brière – Simmonds – Schenn9:51
xG 0.05–0.33 (13%)attempts 5–8goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestTimonen – Schenn12:06
xG 0.27–0.16 (63%)attempts 15–10goals 0–1
- Schenn – Gustafsson2:48
xG 0.04–0.10 (28%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Coburn – Grossmann13:55
xG 0.16–0.34 (32%)attempts 6–15goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 75% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − PIT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).