Thu, Mar 7, 2013·Verizon Center, Washington
Florida Panthers 1, Washington Capitals 7
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 60% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 08 | 012 | 110 | 130 |
| WSH | 412 | 14 | 210 | 726 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:58WSHJohn ErskineAssists: Alex Ovechkin, John Carlson · Slap, 0.02 xG0–1
- P1 3:10WSHWojtek WolskiGWGAssists: Steve Oleksy, Mathieu Perreault · Wrist, 0.15 xG0–2
- P1 5:38WSHJohn CarlsonAssists: Nicklas Backstrom, Troy Brouwer · Slap, 0.02 xG0–3
- P1 8:10WSHMike RibeiroAssists: Alex Ovechkin, Matt Hendricks · Wrist, 0.19 xG0–4
- P2 9:17WSHAlex OvechkinPPAssists: Troy Brouwer, Mike Ribeiro · Slap, 0.14 xG0–5
- P3 4:08WSHEric FehrPPAssists: Wojtek Wolski, Mike Ribeiro · Snap, 0.15 xG0–6
- P3 10:49FLAJack SkilleAssists: Shawn Matthias · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–6
- P3 19:01WSHMathieu PerreaultAssists: Wojtek Wolski, Steve Oleksy · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–7
Penalties (5)
- P2 8:57FLATyson Strachan: Interference5 min · PPG
- P2 8:57FLATyson Strachan: Game misconduct10 min
- P3 2:18FLANolan Yonkman: Interference2 min · PPG
- P3 8:06WSHTomas Kundratek: Hooking2 min
- P3 13:40WSHJason Chimera: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Beagle won the faceoff against Matthias
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestMueller – Shore – Huberdeau12:12
xG 0.62–0.39 (61%)attempts 14–5goals 0–1
- Kopecky – Goc – Fleischmann9:49
xG 0.25–0.29 (46%)attempts 16–9goals 0–2
- Skille – Matthias – Rheault9:57
xG 0.35–0.44 (44%)attempts 12–7goals 1–0
- Parros – Smithson – Santorelli8:39
xG 0.00–1.03 (0%)attempts 0–15goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestKuba – Gudbranson14:00
xG 0.98–0.52 (65%)attempts 19–7goals 0–0
- Campbell – Robak3:36
xG 0.46–0.23 (67%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Kuba – Yonkman2:12
xG 0.00–0.06 (0%)attempts 0–4goals 0–0
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestRibeiro – Hendricks – Ovechkin12:10
xG 0.95–0.62 (61%)attempts 10–14goals 1–0
- Crabb – Wolski – Perreault7:01
xG 0.10–0.14 (42%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
- Chimera – Ward – Beagle11:36
xG 0.32–0.49 (39%)attempts 3–15goals 0–0
- Fehr – Brouwer – Backstrom10:02
xG 0.41–0.80 (34%)attempts 10–17goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestSchultz – Oleksy16:23
xG 0.92–0.35 (72%)attempts 19–15goals 1–1
- Alzner – Oleksy2:32
xG 0.23–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 1–0
- Erskine – Kundratek2:22
xG 0.25–0.07 (79%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 60% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WSH − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).