Thu, Mar 7, 2013·Joe Louis Arena, Detroit
Edmonton Oilers 0, Detroit Red Wings 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 89% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | 06 | 07 | 09 | 022 |
| DET | 08 | 215 | 15 | 328 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 3:16DETJakub KindlGWGAssists: Patrick Eaves, Brian Lashoff · Wrist, 0.05 xG0–1
- P2 12:19DETCory EmmertonAssists: Drew Miller, Pavel Datsyuk · Wrist, 0.06 xG0–2
- P3 18:50DETJustin AbdelkaderENAssists: Henrik Zetterberg, Damien Brunner · Wrist, 0.71 xG0–3
Penalties (3)
- P1 0:56EDMTaylor Hall: Hooking2 min
- P2 2:34EDMMike Brown: Fighting5 min
- P2 2:34DETJordin Tootoo: Fighting5 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Zetterberg won the faceoff against Gagner
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestGagner – Eberle – Paajarvi8:27
xG 0.32–0.16 (66%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Eberle – Hall – Nugent-Hopkins4:16
xG 0.15–0.10 (59%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
- Gagner – Eberle – Hall4:01
xG 0.03–0.00 (93%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Jones – Brown – VandeVelde2:15
xG 0.00–0.05 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSmid – Petry17:28
xG 0.66–0.26 (72%)attempts 20–15goals 0–1
- Schultz – Schultz16:46
xG 0.15–0.67 (19%)attempts 8–16goals 0–1
- Whitney – Potter15:25
xG 0.15–0.71 (17%)attempts 10–18goals 0–0
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestEaves – Andersson – Tatar7:15
xG 0.34–0.05 (88%)attempts 11–2goals 1–0
- Tootoo – Miller – Emmerton7:38
xG 0.32–0.04 (89%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Cleary – Datsyuk – Abdelkader14:37
xG 0.54–0.38 (58%)attempts 14–15goals 0–0
- Eaves – Miller – Emmerton2:53
xG 0.12–0.02 (83%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKindl – Lashoff13:20
xG 0.69–0.03 (96%)attempts 14–5goals 1–0
- Kronwall – Ericsson18:34
xG 0.38–0.20 (66%)attempts 13–14goals 0–0
- Quincey – Smith19:00
xG 0.54–0.51 (52%)attempts 21–18goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 89% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DET − EDM), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).