Thu, Mar 7, 2013·STAPLES Center, Los Angeles
Dallas Stars 5, Los Angeles Kings 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 72% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 18 | 16 | 38 | 522 |
| LAK | 112 | 19 | 012 | 233 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:28DALJaromir JagrPPAssists: Jamie Benn, Alex Goligoski · Wrist, 0.17 xG1–0
- P1 12:10LAKTrevor LewisAssists: Dwight King, Alec Martinez · Snap, 0.05 xG1–1
- P2 15:30LAKJeff CarterAssists: Dustin Penner, Mike Richards · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–2
- P2 18:46DALCody EakinPPAssists: Alex Goligoski, Kari Lehtonen · Backhand, 0.13 xG2–2
- P3 5:16DALBrenden MorrowGWGAssists: Cody Eakin, Reilly Smith · Wrist, 0.13 xG3–2
- P3 9:40DALJaromir JagrAssists: Jamie Benn, Trevor Daley · Wrist, 0.10 xG4–2
- P3 18:19DALAntoine RousselENAssists: Derek Roy · Wrist, 0.78 xG5–2
Penalties (4)
- P1 4:24LAKKeaton Ellerby: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 12:00LAKAlec Martinez: Tripping2 min
- P2 17:45LAKKeaton Ellerby: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 6:21DALStephane Robidas: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Roy won the faceoff against Kopitar
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestMorrow – Smith – Eakin6:49
xG 0.24–0.11 (68%)attempts 3–4goals 1–0
- Cole – Roy – Roussel12:46
xG 0.45–0.35 (56%)attempts 7–15goals 0–1
- Jagr – Eriksson – Benn12:07
xG 0.42–0.36 (54%)attempts 9–12goals 1–0
- Fiddler – Nystrom – Garbutt9:37
xG 0.04–0.12 (25%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestDaley – Benn16:07
xG 0.84–0.12 (88%)attempts 17–9goals 1–1
- Goligoski – Oleksiak14:21
xG 0.45–0.64 (41%)attempts 6–13goals 1–1
- Robidas – Dillon18:58
xG 0.29–0.76 (27%)attempts 10–25goals 0–0
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestWilliams – Brown – Kopitar15:35
xG 0.33–0.14 (70%)attempts 16–8goals 0–0
- Fraser – Clifford – Nolan8:09
xG 0.14–0.24 (38%)attempts 4–7goals 0–0
- Carter – Richards – Penner11:33
xG 0.24–0.38 (38%)attempts 11–8goals 1–1
- Stoll – Lewis – King10:46
xG 0.15–0.50 (24%)attempts 6–5goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestMuzzin – Doughty18:14
xG 0.72–0.20 (79%)attempts 19–7goals 1–0
- Martinez – Ellerby10:53
xG 0.22–0.18 (54%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- Martinez – Voynov3:42
xG 0.18–0.21 (46%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
LAK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line LAK is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 72% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (LAK − DAL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).