Fri, Mar 8, 2013·Bridgestone Arena, Nashville
Edmonton Oilers 0, Nashville Predators 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 90% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | 08 | 010 | 06 | 024 |
| NSH | 213 | 28 | 213 | 634 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:07NSHPatric HornqvistPPGWGAssists: Colin Wilson, Mike Fisher · Wrist, 0.60 xG0–1
- P1 18:51NSHDavid LegwandAssists: Colin Wilson · Wrist, 0.01 xG0–2
- P2 0:51NSHRich CluneAssists: Paul Gaustad, Sergei Kostitsyn · Wrist, 0.36 xG0–3
- P2 18:22NSHZach BoychukAssists: Shea Weber, Martin Erat · Tip-in, 0.07 xG0–4
- P3 4:43NSHColin WilsonAssists: Mike Fisher, Shea Weber · Backhand, 0.10 xG0–5
- P3 16:39NSHColin WilsonPPAssists: Shea Weber, Craig Smith · Wrist, 0.05 xG0–6
Penalties (8)
- P1 4:52EDMNick Schultz: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P1 6:09EDMMike Brown: Fighting5 min
- P1 6:09NSHRich Clune: Fighting5 min
- P2 6:00EDMTheo Peckham: Holding2 min
- P2 6:00NSHPaul Gaustad: Roughing2 min
- P2 6:00EDMTheo Peckham: Roughing2 min
- P2 10:23EDMRyan Whitney: Tripping2 min
- P3 15:46EDMRyan Jones: Roughing2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Nugent-Hopkins won the faceoff against Gaustad
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestGagner – Paajarvi – Yakupov15:10
xG 0.59–0.48 (55%)attempts 15–10goals 0–0
- Belanger – Jones – Petrell9:09
xG 0.14–0.41 (25%)attempts 2–10goals 0–1
- Smyth – Eager – Brown7:50
xG 0.12–0.48 (20%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Eberle – Hall – Nugent-Hopkins14:04
xG 0.23–1.43 (14%)attempts 10–19goals 0–3
Defence pairs
- bestWhitney – Peckham9:39
xG 0.41–0.35 (53%)attempts 13–7goals 0–1
- Schultz – Peckham4:15
xG 0.06–0.10 (36%)attempts 1–2goals 0–1
- Smid – Petry17:26
xG 0.39–0.84 (32%)attempts 11–14goals 0–1
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestErat – Smith – Butler7:51
xG 0.79–0.05 (94%)attempts 11–4goals 0–0
- Gaustad – Clune – Kostitsyn10:08
xG 0.64–0.20 (76%)attempts 8–5goals 1–0
- Fisher – Erat – Boychuk4:54
xG 0.28–0.06 (83%)attempts 7–2goals 1–0
- Fisher – Hornqvist – Boychuk4:53
xG 0.22–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestWeber – Josi14:39
xG 1.52–0.28 (85%)attempts 20–8goals 3–0
- Hannan – Ellis16:59
xG 0.75–0.38 (66%)attempts 20–11goals 1–0
- Klein – Bartley18:55
xG 0.61–0.37 (62%)attempts 8–12goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 90% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NSH − EDM), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).