Fri, Mar 8, 2013·Pepsi Center, Denver
Chicago Blackhawks 2, Colorado Avalanche 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 66% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHI | 16 | 013 | 114 | 233 |
| COL | 110 | 49 | 112 | 631 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:44CHIJonathan ToewsAssists: Marian Hossa, Brandon Saad · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–0
- P1 16:36COLPaul StastnyPPAssists: Matt Duchene, PA Parenteau · Tip-in, 0.09 xG1–1
- P2 4:16COLMatt DucheneAssists: Erik Johnson · Backhand, 0.08 xG1–2
- P2 4:49COLJohn MitchellGWGAssists: Ryan O'Reilly, Aaron Palushaj · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–3
- P2 10:47COLRyan O'ReillyPPAssists: Matt Duchene, Paul Stastny · Slap, 0.05 xG1–4
- P2 13:58COLJamie McGinnAssists: Matt Duchene, PA Parenteau · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–5
- P3 8:53CHIBryan BickellAssists: Marcus Kruger, Michael Frolik · Slap, 0.07 xG2–5
- P3 15:46COLPA ParenteauAssists: Paul Stastny, Matt Hunwick · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–6
Penalties (9)
- P1 2:18CHINick Leddy: Holding2 min
- P1 15:50CHIBryan Bickell: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 1:34COLAaron Palushaj: High sticking2 min
- P2 10:43CHICorey Crawford: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 6:23COLPaul Stastny: Hooking2 min
- P3 11:58CHINiklas Hjalmarsson: Hooking2 min
- P3 14:56COLGabriel Landeskog: Cross checking2 min
- P3 14:56CHIBryan Bickell: Roughing2 min
- P3 14:56CHIBryan Bickell: Misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00O'Reilly won the faceoff against Toews
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestHossa – Toews – Saad11:28
xG 0.42–0.21 (67%)attempts 13–7goals 1–0
- Bolland – Bickell – Kane10:23
xG 0.34–0.28 (55%)attempts 10–9goals 0–1
- Stalberg – Bollig – Shaw2:15
xG 0.04–0.01 (78%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Frolik – Kruger – Bollig3:14
xG 0.06–0.05 (52%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKeith – Seabrook15:59
xG 0.59–0.32 (65%)attempts 21–11goals 1–2
- Rozsival – Leddy14:37
xG 0.44–0.37 (54%)attempts 16–8goals 1–0
- Rozsival – Keith2:19
xG 0.00–0.05 (0%)attempts 0–1goals 0–0
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestMitchell – Palushaj – O'Reilly9:50
xG 0.39–0.17 (70%)attempts 9–6goals 1–0
- McLeod – Stastny – Landeskog2:15
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–0goals 0–0
- Jones – Stastny – Landeskog10:38
xG 0.21–0.24 (47%)attempts 8–11goals 0–0
- Kobasew – Bordeleau – McLeod3:47
xG 0.00–0.04 (0%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHejda – O'Brien11:36
xG 0.40–0.13 (76%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
- Zanon – Johnson14:03
xG 0.15–0.43 (26%)attempts 9–14goals 0–0
- O'Byrne – Hunwick14:53
xG 0.30–0.59 (34%)attempts 11–17goals 1–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it CHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 66% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − CHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).