Sat, Mar 9, 2013·Bridgestone Arena, Nashville
Minnesota Wild 2, Nashville Predators 1 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 71% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 05 | 18 | 010 | 06 | 2 | 229 |
| NSH | 09 | 06 | 19 | 01 | 1 | 125 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 9:01MINZach ParisePPAssists: Ryan Suter, Mikko Koivu · Tip-in, 0.23 xG1–0
- P3 6:28NSHDavid LegwandPPAssists: Sergei Kostitsyn, Shea Weber · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–1
Shootout
- 1. MIN Zach Parise stopped
- 2. NSH Gabriel Bourque stopped
- 3. MIN Mikko Koivu scored
- 4. NSH Craig Smith scored
- 5. MIN Matt Cullen scored
- 6. NSH David Legwand stopped
Penalties (9)
- P1 12:26MINKyle Brodziak: Tripping2 min
- P2 1:48NSHDavid Legwand: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P2 8:07NSHBobby Butler: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 10:41NSHMike Fisher: Roughing2 min
- P2 10:41MINTorrey Mitchell: Roughing2 min
- P2 16:10NSHVictor Bartley: Holding2 min
- P3 5:53MINRyan Suter: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P3 10:53NSHNick Spaling: Hooking2 min
- OT 1:34NSHPekka Rinne: Delaying game illegal play by goalie2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Brodziak won the faceoff against Gaustad
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestCullen – Setoguchi – Zucker8:55
xG 0.44–0.12 (78%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Koivu – Parise – Coyle10:05
xG 0.33–0.34 (49%)attempts 9–9goals 0–0
- Rupp – Konopka – Mitchell9:31
xG 0.13–0.23 (37%)attempts 2–11goals 0–0
- Heatley – Brodziak – Clutterbuck8:38
xG 0.10–0.39 (21%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGilbert – Falk11:02
xG 0.70–0.08 (90%)attempts 13–7goals 0–0
- Stoner – Spurgeon15:10
xG 0.45–0.37 (55%)attempts 6–11goals 0–0
- Suter – Brodin15:14
xG 0.32–0.74 (30%)attempts 13–15goals 0–0
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestLegwand – Wilson – Bourque4:10
xG 0.40–0.12 (76%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Legwand – Erat – Bourque4:16
xG 0.17–0.07 (69%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Fisher – Boychuk – Butler2:25
xG 0.16–0.11 (60%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Fisher – Spaling – Boychuk7:24
xG 0.10–0.10 (50%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestWeber – Josi15:02
xG 0.57–0.36 (62%)attempts 17–7goals 0–0
- Klein – Bartley11:57
xG 0.47–0.49 (49%)attempts 10–11goals 0–0
- Hannan – Klein2:50
xG 0.00–0.09 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 71% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NSH − MIN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).