Sat, Mar 9, 2013·Jobing.com Arena, Glendale
Dallas Stars 1, Phoenix Coyotes 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Phoenix Coyotes win this game 65% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 06 | 111 | 04 | 121 |
| PHX | 19 | 19 | 03 | 221 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 16:59PHXShane DoanAssists: Antoine Vermette, Oliver Ekman-Larsson · Wrist, 0.11 xG0–1
- P2 7:31PHXRob KlinkhammerGWGAssists: Boyd Gordon, David Moss · Wrist, 0.12 xG0–2
- P2 18:19DALJaromir JagrPPAssists: Loui Eriksson · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–2
Penalties (7)
- P2 10:38PHXMartin Hanzal: Hooking2 min
- P2 16:36PHXRob Klinkhammer: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 17:00PHXDavid Moss: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 19:17DALCody Eakin: Holding the stick2 min
- P3 2:18DALJamie Oleksiak: Hooking2 min
- P3 9:29PHXKyle Chipchura: High sticking2 min
- P3 10:01PHXAntoine Vermette: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Hanzal won the faceoff against Benn
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- Jagr – Roy – Eriksson3:02
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Smith – Eakin – Fraser9:28
xG 0.29–0.30 (49%)attempts 8–5goals 0–1
- Fiddler – Nystrom – Garbutt5:37
xG 0.26–0.43 (38%)attempts 5–6goals 0–1
- Cole – Roy – Roussel6:42
xG 0.05–0.42 (10%)attempts 2–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Goligoski – Oleksiak15:17
xG 0.42–0.65 (39%)attempts 12–14goals 0–0
- Daley – Benn12:47
xG 0.13–0.52 (20%)attempts 10–14goals 0–0
- Robidas – Dillon14:53
xG 0.29–0.81 (26%)attempts 13–12goals 0–2
Phoenix Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestMoss – Gordon – Klinkhammer9:40
xG 0.64–0.01 (98%)attempts 6–4goals 1–0
- Sullivan – Doan – Vermette9:09
xG 0.24–0.11 (69%)attempts 9–5goals 1–0
- Torres – Chipchura – Johnson6:30
xG 0.46–0.41 (53%)attempts 7–10goals 0–0
- Korpikoski – Hanzal – Boedker12:51
xG 0.32–0.38 (46%)attempts 11–15goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMorris – Yandle13:41
xG 0.93–0.40 (70%)attempts 17–11goals 0–0
- Michalek – Ekman-Larsson15:53
xG 0.74–0.41 (65%)attempts 17–19goals 1–0
- Yandle – Stone3:09
xG 0.08–0.04 (69%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHX's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHX is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Phoenix Coyotes win this game 65% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHX − DAL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).