Sun, Mar 10, 2013·Verizon Center, Washington
New York Rangers 4, Washington Capitals 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 69% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR | 112 | 210 | 18 | 430 |
| WSH | 18 | 013 | 08 | 129 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:16WSHSteve OleksyAssists: Jason Chimera, Marcus Johansson · Snap, 0.02 xG0–1
- P1 11:31NYRDerek StepanAssists: Marian Gaborik, Ryan McDonagh · Deflected, 0.08 xG1–1
- P2 10:53NYRBrian BoyleGWGAssists: Ryan McDonagh, Carl Hagelin · Slap, 0.06 xG2–1
- P2 11:34NYRRyan CallahanPPAssists: Rick Nash, Michael Del Zotto · Slap, 0.04 xG3–1
- P3 18:48NYRBrad RichardsAssists: Carl Hagelin, Rick Nash · Wrist, 0.32 xG4–1
Penalties (7)
- P1 6:46NYRAnton Stralman: Hooking2 min
- P2 7:36WSHJoey Crabb: Boarding2 min
- P2 10:53WSHAlex Ovechkin: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 17:21NYRBrian Boyle: Holding2 min
- P2 18:50NYRDarroll Powe: Tripping2 min
- P3 13:20WSHMike Ribeiro: Roughing2 min
- P3 13:20NYRMichael Del Zotto: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Backstrom won the faceoff against Richards
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestRichards – Nash – Hagelin12:17
xG 0.76–0.16 (82%)attempts 14–7goals 1–0
- Gaborik – Callahan – Stepan12:48
xG 0.51–0.29 (64%)attempts 13–9goals 1–0
- Pyatt – Boyle – Miller7:53
xG 0.24–0.09 (72%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
- Pyatt – Powe – Miller4:29
xG 0.08–0.16 (33%)attempts 3–4goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestStralman – McDonagh2:32
xG 0.58–0.02 (96%)attempts 4–1goals 2–0
- Stralman – Del Zotto14:10
xG 0.80–0.29 (74%)attempts 14–8goals 0–0
- Girardi – McDonagh15:36
xG 0.65–0.28 (70%)attempts 18–14goals 1–1
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestFehr – Brouwer – Backstrom11:57
xG 0.31–0.14 (69%)attempts 10–7goals 0–0
- Chimera – Ward – Johansson4:25
xG 0.04–0.06 (39%)attempts 4–3goals 1–0
- Crabb – Beagle – Volpatti4:56
xG 0.00–0.05 (0%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Chimera – Ward – Beagle3:16
xG 0.15–0.20 (43%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestAlzner – Carlson3:46
xG 0.12–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Carlson – Oleksy2:13
xG 0.03–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Poti – Oleksy11:10
xG 0.31–0.74 (30%)attempts 13–15goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it NYR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 69% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WSH − NYR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).