Sun, Mar 10, 2013·Joe Louis Arena, Detroit
Columbus Blue Jackets 3, Detroit Red Wings 2 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 51% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBJ | 06 | 28 | 05 | 02 | 2 | 321 |
| DET | 04 | 110 | 17 | 02 | 1 | 223 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 3:10CBJDerick BrassardAssists: Fedor Tyutin, Cam Atkinson · Slap, 0.02 xG1–0
- P2 3:40DETJakub KindlAssists: Pavel Datsyuk · Slap, 0.04 xG1–1
- P2 4:25CBJR.J. UmbergerAssists: Ryan Johansen, Nick Foligno · Slap, 0.08 xG2–1
- P3 0:25DETJohan FranzenPPAssists: Damien Brunner, Henrik Zetterberg · Wrist, 0.15 xG2–2
Shootout
- 1. DET Pavel Datsyuk scored
- 2. CBJ Ryan Johansen scored
- 3. DET Damien Brunner stopped
- 4. CBJ Matt Calvert scored
- 5. DET Henrik Zetterberg stopped
Penalties (13)
- P1 10:27CBJNick Foligno: High sticking2 min
- P1 17:44DETJordin Tootoo: Illegal check to head2 min
- P2 1:01DETNiklas Kronwall: Tripping2 min
- P2 6:25CBJTim Erixon: Interference2 min
- P2 10:11DETPatrick Eaves: Interference2 min
- P2 14:58CBJDerick Brassard: Hooking2 min
- P2 19:36CBJRyan Johansen: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 19:36CBJR.J. Umberger: Delaying game face off violation2 min
- P3 2:41CBJNick Drazenovic: Hooking2 min
- P3 4:57CBJDerek MacKenzie: Fighting5 min
- P3 4:57DETBrendan Smith: Fighting5 min
- P3 8:15DETIan White: Hooking2 min
- P3 13:34DETTomas Tatar: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Letestu won the faceoff against Datsyuk
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestProspal – Brassard – Letestu6:34
xG 0.14–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–1goals 0–0
- Umberger – Foligno – Johansen8:56
xG 0.35–0.30 (54%)attempts 7–8goals 1–0
- Prospal – Foligno – Johansen2:17
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 1–0goals 0–0
- Drazenovic – Calvert – Atkinson4:26
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–0goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestNikitin – Prout11:32
xG 0.37–0.21 (64%)attempts 10–7goals 0–0
- Aucoin – Erixon9:41
xG 0.37–0.23 (62%)attempts 12–6goals 1–0
- Tyutin – Johnson14:25
xG 0.19–0.28 (41%)attempts 10–11goals 1–1
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestDatsyuk – Franzen – Abdelkader9:23
xG 0.32–0.06 (84%)attempts 8–7goals 1–0
- Eaves – Andersson – Tatar5:06
xG 0.15–0.03 (83%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Tootoo – Miller – Emmerton5:39
xG 0.03–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
- Cleary – Zetterberg – Brunner8:11
xG 0.09–0.47 (16%)attempts 6–8goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestWhite – Kindl7:41
xG 0.11–0.02 (81%)attempts 4–2goals 1–0
- Quincey – Kindl3:05
xG 0.02–0.03 (44%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Kronwall – Ericsson11:39
xG 0.28–0.38 (42%)attempts 10–11goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it CBJ. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 51% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DET − CBJ), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).