Sun, Mar 10, 2013·BB&T Center, Sunrise
Montréal Canadiens 5, Florida Panthers 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 95% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 213 | 213 | 112 | 538 |
| FLA | 07 | 05 | 25 | 217 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:46MTLDavid DesharnaisAssists: Brendan Gallagher, Alexei Emelin · Slap, 0.04 xG1–0
- P1 8:42MTLMichael RyderPPAssists: P.K. Subban, Tomas Plekanec · Tip-in, 0.13 xG2–0
- P2 15:35MTLBrian GiontaGWGAssists: P.K. Subban, Tomas Plekanec · Slap, 0.30 xG3–0
- P2 17:47MTLFrancis BouillonAssists: Michael Ryder, Brian Gionta · Slap, 0.11 xG4–0
- P3 7:59FLATomas KopeckyUnassisted · Slap, 0.11 xG4–1
- P3 13:57FLAShawn MatthiasAssists: Jack Skille · Snap, 0.03 xG4–2
- P3 15:53MTLMichael RyderPPAssists: P.K. Subban, Andrei Markov · Tip-in, 0.08 xG5–2
Penalties (9)
- P1 6:56FLAMarcel Goc: Interference2 min · PPG
- P1 17:39FLANolan Yonkman: Roughing2 min
- P1 17:39FLANolan Yonkman: Slashing2 min
- P2 11:50FLAFilip Kuba: Boarding2 min
- P2 19:03MTLBrendan Gallagher: Tripping2 min
- P3 9:28FLAPeter Mueller: Hooking2 min
- P3 15:19FLAKris Versteeg: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 16:48MTLGabriel Dumont: Roughing2 min
- P3 16:48FLADrew Shore: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Shore won the faceoff against Plekanec
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestEller – Dumont – Galchenyuk12:12
xG 0.79–0.21 (79%)attempts 10–8goals 0–0
- Moen – Armstrong – White9:48
xG 0.52–0.10 (84%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
- Gionta – Ryder – Plekanec8:26
xG 0.66–0.30 (68%)attempts 9–7goals 2–0
- Desharnais – Pacioretty – Gallagher8:52
xG 0.38–0.23 (63%)attempts 11–7goals 1–2
Defence pairs
- bestMarkov – Emelin12:50
xG 1.02–0.19 (85%)attempts 16–11goals 0–0
- Bouillon – Subban2:33
xG 0.49–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 2–0
- Gorges – Emelin2:05
xG 0.24–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- Goc – Fleischmann – Versteeg9:15
xG 0.26–0.27 (49%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
- Parros – Smithson – Santorelli4:55
xG 0.07–0.21 (26%)attempts 3–7goals 0–1
- Kopecky – Skille – Matthias10:19
xG 0.21–0.53 (29%)attempts 7–11goals 2–0
- Mueller – Shore – Huberdeau11:51
xG 0.32–0.78 (29%)attempts 11–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestStrachan – Robak2:45
xG 0.14–0.03 (81%)attempts 4–1goals 1–0
- Robak – Gudbranson3:48
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 1–0goals 0–0
- Kuba – Strachan2:35
xG 0.07–0.11 (38%)attempts 2–2goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 95% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (FLA − MTL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).