Sun, Mar 10, 2013·Prudential Center, Newark
Winnipeg Jets 2, New Jersey Devils 3 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 75% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPG | 15 | 18 | 07 | 05 | 0 | 225 |
| NJD | 211 | 07 | 07 | 02 | 1 | 327 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:47NJDRyan CarterAssists: Travis Zajac, Anton Volchenkov · Backhand, 0.09 xG0–1
- P1 10:12NJDStephen GiontaAssists: Ilya Kovalchuk, Adam Larsson · Wrist, 0.17 xG0–2
- P1 16:17WPGMark StuartAssists: Nik Antropov, Antti Miettinen · Snap, 0.05 xG1–2
- P2 17:19WPGEvander KaneAssists: Mark Stuart · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–2
Shootout
- 1. NJD Ilya Kovalchuk stopped
- 2. WPG Blake Wheeler stopped
- 3. NJD David Clarkson stopped
- 4. WPG Evander Kane stopped
- 5. NJD Patrik Elias scored
- 6. WPG Andrew Ladd stopped
Penalties (2)
- P1 17:59WPGGrant Clitsome: Holding2 min
- P3 1:03NJDIlya Kovalchuk: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Henrique won the faceoff against Little
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestJokinen – Miettinen – Kane9:04
xG 0.37–0.05 (89%)attempts 9–6goals 1–0
- Antropov – Wellwood – Wright6:26
xG 0.14–0.10 (59%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Antropov – Wellwood – Kane2:04
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 1–0goals 0–0
- Antropov – Miettinen – Wright2:58
xG 0.13–0.36 (27%)attempts 3–3goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- Meech – Stuart10:43
xG 0.18–0.31 (37%)attempts 5–5goals 1–1
- Hainsey – Bogosian19:11
xG 0.21–0.51 (29%)attempts 9–16goals 0–0
- Byfuglien – Clitsome21:13
xG 0.60–1.10 (35%)attempts 15–23goals 0–1
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestElias – Bernier – Henrique12:58
xG 0.76–0.32 (70%)attempts 16–6goals 0–0
- Clarkson – Zajac – Carter10:13
xG 0.48–0.26 (65%)attempts 9–8goals 1–1
- Ponikarovsky – Kovalchuk – Loktionov14:43
xG 0.29–0.21 (58%)attempts 12–6goals 0–0
- Kostopoulos – Barch – Gionta6:05
xG 0.03–0.25 (10%)attempts 2–4goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestVolchenkov – Harrold13:08
xG 0.65–0.26 (72%)attempts 11–6goals 1–0
- Salvador – Zidlicky16:44
xG 0.69–0.39 (64%)attempts 22–11goals 0–0
- Salvador – Harrold2:30
xG 0.10–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NJD's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NJD is favoured, below it WPG. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 75% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NJD − WPG), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).