Sun, Mar 10, 2013·CONSOL Energy Center, Pittsburgh
New York Islanders 1, Pittsburgh Penguins 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 70% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 04 | 16 | 014 | 124 |
| PIT | 312 | 25 | 111 | 628 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:10PITPascal DupuisAssists: Chris Kunitz, Sidney Crosby · Wrist, 0.02 xG0–1
- P1 13:46PITChris KunitzPPGWGAssists: James Neal, Sidney Crosby · Wrist, 0.31 xG0–2
- P1 16:41PITChris KunitzPPAssists: James Neal, Sidney Crosby · Wrist, 0.23 xG0–3
- P2 8:07NYIBrad BoyesAssists: Casey Cizikas, Matt Moulson · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–3
- P2 13:34PITChris KunitzAssists: Kris Letang, Sidney Crosby · Wrist, 0.39 xG1–4
- P2 13:50PITJames NealAssists: Kris Letang · Snap, 0.10 xG1–5
- P3 6:39PITPascal DupuisAssists: Sidney Crosby, Chris Kunitz · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–6
Penalties (9)
- P1 4:35PITSidney Crosby: Roughing2 min
- P1 4:35NYIEvgeni Nabokov: Roughing2 min
- P1 11:45NYIBrad Boyes: Tripping2 min
- P1 12:24NYITravis Hamonic: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P1 16:17NYIAndrew MacDonald: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P2 19:24PITPaul Martin: Holding2 min
- P3 8:26PITBrooks Orpik: Hooking2 min
- P3 11:22NYIKyle Okposo: Roughing2 min
- P3 19:19PITPascal Dupuis: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Sutter won the faceoff against Tavares
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestBoyes – Moulson – Tavares13:21
xG 0.72–0.63 (53%)attempts 14–8goals 0–1
- McDonald – Martin – Cizikas8:18
xG 0.10–0.10 (51%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Nielsen – Okposo – Bailey9:19
xG 0.35–0.44 (44%)attempts 12–8goals 0–2
- Reasoner – Grabner – Ullstrom7:40
xG 0.04–0.18 (18%)attempts 3–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestVisnovsky – Hickey10:38
xG 0.53–0.28 (65%)attempts 15–6goals 1–0
- Martinek – Hickey4:09
xG 0.12–0.01 (95%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- MacDonald – Hamonic11:24
xG 0.20–0.16 (56%)attempts 6–10goals 0–2
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestDupuis – Kunitz – Crosby8:17
xG 0.80–0.32 (72%)attempts 13–7goals 3–0
- Adams – Glass – Vitale8:31
xG 0.31–0.11 (75%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0
- Neal – Jeffrey – Bennett6:31
xG 0.17–0.09 (64%)attempts 4–4goals 1–0
- Cooke – Kennedy – Sutter8:22
xG 0.03–0.15 (16%)attempts 2–6goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestEaton – Letang11:09
xG 0.77–0.23 (77%)attempts 11–9goals 3–0
- Niskanen – Despres12:01
xG 0.29–0.19 (61%)attempts 10–6goals 0–1
- Letang – Despres2:48
xG 0.08–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 70% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PIT − NYI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).