Sun, Mar 10, 2013·United Center, Chicago
Edmonton Oilers 6, Chicago Blackhawks 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 64% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | 412 | 29 | 04 | 625 |
| CHI | 06 | 420 | 111 | 537 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:24EDMMike BrownAssists: Nick Schultz, Ryan Smyth · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–0
- P1 3:00EDMSam GagnerAssists: Magnus Paajarvi, Nail Yakupov · Wrist, 0.17 xG2–0
- P1 9:19EDMRyan WhitneyAssists: Taylor Hall, Ales Hemsky · Slap, 0.05 xG3–0
- P1 12:22EDMSam GagnerPPAssists: Ryan Whitney, Jordan Eberle · Backhand, 0.19 xG4–0
- P2 5:36CHIPatrick KaneAssists: Dave Bolland · Wrist, 0.12 xG4–1
- P2 7:51CHIMarian HossaAssists: Jonathan Toews, Nick Leddy · Snap, 0.13 xG4–2
- P2 10:28EDMShawn HorcoffPPAssists: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Justin Schultz · Deflected, 0.19 xG5–2
- P2 15:05CHISheldon BrookbankSHAssists: Marian Hossa · Wrist, 0.32 xG5–3
- P2 15:56EDMTaylor HallPPGWGAssists: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Justin Schultz · Deflected, 0.16 xG6–3
- P2 17:12CHIBrent SeabrookAssists: Patrick Kane, Duncan Keith · Slap, 0.03 xG6–4
- P3 7:06CHIPatrick KanePPAssists: Dave Bolland, Brandon Saad · Wrist, 0.09 xG6–5
Penalties (8)
- P1 12:02CHIJamal Mayers: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min · PPG
- P2 8:31CHINick Leddy: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 14:22CHIDuncan Keith: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 17:29CHIAndrew Shaw: Roughing2 min
- P2 17:29EDMShawn Horcoff: Roughing2 min
- P3 5:46EDMLadislav Smid: Interference2 min · PPG
- P3 12:15EDMNick Schultz: Broken stick2 min
- P3 15:57CHIMarian Hossa: Interference goalkeeper2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Bolland won the faceoff against Gagner
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestHorcoff – Hemsky – Hall11:35
xG 0.66–0.60 (52%)attempts 9–16goals 1–1
- Gagner – Paajarvi – Yakupov7:37
xG 0.32–0.31 (50%)attempts 6–8goals 1–1
- Smyth – Brown – Petrell8:00
xG 0.07–0.15 (30%)attempts 2–8goals 1–0
- Petrell – Gagner – Paajarvi3:48
xG 0.08–0.18 (31%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSmid – Petry15:33
xG 0.67–0.59 (53%)attempts 17–17goals 0–2
- Whitney – Schultz10:46
xG 0.39–0.42 (48%)attempts 5–15goals 1–1
- Schultz – Potter15:07
xG 0.37–0.40 (48%)attempts 7–12goals 2–0
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestHossa – Toews – Saad12:43
xG 0.57–0.41 (58%)attempts 16–12goals 1–1
- Bolland – Stalberg – Kane11:26
xG 0.42–0.29 (59%)attempts 12–4goals 2–1
- Bickell – Kruger – Shaw8:39
xG 0.38–0.31 (56%)attempts 12–3goals 0–0
- Mayers – Carcillo – Frolik2:47
xG 0.06–0.10 (37%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHjalmarsson – Leddy9:47
xG 0.56–0.14 (80%)attempts 16–3goals 2–0
- Oduya – Brookbank7:59
xG 0.59–0.21 (74%)attempts 13–3goals 0–0
- Brookbank – Leddy5:56
xG 0.08–0.07 (55%)attempts 4–2goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CHI is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 64% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CHI − EDM), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).