Sun, Mar 10, 2013·Pepsi Center, Denver
San Jose Sharks 2, Colorado Avalanche 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 61% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJS | 010 | 116 | 19 | 03 | 238 |
| COL | 115 | 19 | 011 | 17 | 342 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:47COLMatt DuchenePPAssists: PA Parenteau, Gabriel Landeskog · Wrist, 0.12 xG0–1
- P2 6:58COLRyan O'ReillyAssists: Aaron Palushaj, John Mitchell · Tip-in, 0.01 xG0–2
- P2 19:20SJSPatrick MarleauAssists: Justin Braun, Ryane Clowe · Tip-in, 0.06 xG1–2
- P3 16:35SJSLogan CoutureAssists: Joe Thornton · Slap, 0.05 xG2–2
- OT 4:59COLMatt DucheneGWGAssists: PA Parenteau, Jan Hejda · Wrist, 0.11 xG2–3
Penalties (9)
- P1 5:46SJSAdam Burish: Interference2 min · PPG
- P1 17:02SJSScott Gomez: Tripping2 min
- P2 4:08COLShane O'Brien: Interference2 min
- P2 7:47COLPA Parenteau: Tripping2 min
- P2 10:46COLErik Johnson: Slashing2 min
- P2 12:38SJSPatrick Marleau: Interference2 min
- P3 6:31SJSTommy Wingels: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P3 7:00COLRyan O'Reilly: Interference2 min
- P3 9:06COLRyan O'Byrne: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Duchene won the faceoff against Marleau
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestMarleau – Pavelski – Kennedy3:10
xG 0.21–0.00 (98%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Gomez – Clowe – Sheppard3:49
xG 0.13–0.10 (57%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Marleau – Clowe – Pavelski7:37
xG 0.25–0.22 (53%)attempts 7–8goals 1–0
- Gomez – Kennedy – Sheppard6:01
xG 0.00–0.03 (0%)attempts 0–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBoyle – Irwin8:23
xG 0.53–0.09 (85%)attempts 13–8goals 0–0
- Braun – Irwin5:33
xG 0.08–0.07 (53%)attempts 5–4goals 1–0
- Stuart – Murray13:03
xG 0.30–0.30 (50%)attempts 8–13goals 0–1
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestJones – Stastny – Landeskog9:38
xG 0.69–0.47 (60%)attempts 15–9goals 0–0
- Mitchell – Palushaj – O'Reilly6:22
xG 0.27–0.12 (69%)attempts 8–4goals 1–0
- Kobasew – Bordeleau – McLeod4:53
xG 0.09–0.11 (46%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
- Parenteau – McGinn – Duchene12:23
xG 0.23–0.43 (35%)attempts 9–12goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestJohnson – Wilson12:34
xG 0.61–0.35 (63%)attempts 18–10goals 1–0
- O'Byrne – Hunwick13:49
xG 0.54–0.33 (62%)attempts 17–11goals 0–1
- Hejda – O'Brien12:16
xG 0.18–0.52 (26%)attempts 10–8goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it SJS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 61% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − SJS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).