Sun, Mar 10, 2013·Honda Center, Anaheim
St. Louis Blues 2, Anaheim Ducks 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 72% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 110 | 014 | 17 | 231 |
| ANA | 09 | 17 | 36 | 422 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:09STLRyan ReavesAssists: Wade Redden, Adam Cracknell · Deflected, 0.14 xG1–0
- P2 8:24ANAAndrew CoglianoSHAssists: Emerson Etem, Ben Lovejoy · Wrist, 0.17 xG1–1
- P3 1:41STLPatrik BerglundPPAssists: Kris Russell, T.J. Oshie · Wrist, 0.02 xG2–1
- P3 3:11ANABobby RyanAssists: Ryan Getzlaf, Francois Beauchemin · Wrist, 0.09 xG2–2
- P3 5:20ANACorey PerryPPGWGAssists: Ryan Getzlaf, Francois Beauchemin · Deflected, 0.20 xG2–3
- P3 19:20ANACorey PerryENAssists: Francois Beauchemin, Sheldon Souray · Wrist, 0.60 xG2–4
Penalties (10)
- P1 12:24STLAdam Cracknell: Tripping2 min
- P1 16:23ANAMatt Beleskey: Tripping2 min
- P1 17:52STLWade Redden: Hooking2 min
- P2 4:30STLT.J. Oshie: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P2 4:56STLBarret Jackman: Slashing2 min
- P2 6:26ANACorey Perry: Interference2 min
- P2 19:08STLKris Russell: Hooking2 min
- P3 1:17ANABobby Ryan: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 3:41STLRoman Polak: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 10:09STLBarret Jackman: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Backes won the faceoff against Koivu
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestBackes – Oshie – Schwartz8:41
xG 0.93–0.40 (70%)attempts 17–7goals 0–0
- Nichol – Cracknell – Reaves4:44
xG 0.21–0.08 (72%)attempts 5–3goals 1–0
- Backes – Stewart – Schwartz2:15
xG 0.09–0.03 (75%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Oshie – Berglund – Perron2:37
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 1–0goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestRedden – Shattenkirk10:13
xG 0.42–0.05 (89%)attempts 10–3goals 1–0
- Polak – Russell14:10
xG 0.50–0.37 (58%)attempts 11–8goals 0–0
- Jackman – Pietrangelo12:53
xG 0.50–0.38 (57%)attempts 15–11goals 0–1
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestGetzlaf – Perry – Ryan11:57
xG 0.50–0.18 (73%)attempts 11–11goals 1–0
- Selanne – McMillan – Holland2:22
xG 0.25–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Selanne – Beleskey – Holland6:05
xG 0.00–0.31 (0%)attempts 2–8goals 0–0
- Koivu – Winnik – Cogliano10:53
xG 0.04–0.35 (10%)attempts 3–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Lydman – Fowler11:28
xG 0.20–0.18 (53%)attempts 6–13goals 0–0
- Lydman – Sbisa2:51
xG 0.03–0.04 (45%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Lovejoy – Sbisa11:40
xG 0.19–0.23 (45%)attempts 6–5goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ANA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ANA is favoured, below it STL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 72% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ANA − STL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).