Mon, Mar 11, 2013·Scotiabank Place, Ottawa
Boston Bruins 3, Ottawa Senators 2 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 58% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 116 | 17 | 09 | 03 | 2 | 335 |
| OTT | 215 | 08 | 06 | 03 | 1 | 232 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:55OTTGuillaume LatendresseAssists: Sergei Gonchar, Chris Phillips · Backhand, 0.08 xG0–1
- P1 7:18OTTKyle TurrisAssists: Chris Phillips · Wrist, 0.08 xG0–2
- P1 19:16BOSShawn ThorntonAssists: Zdeno Chara · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–2
- P2 8:53BOSDaniel PailleAssists: David Krejci, Adam McQuaid · Wrist, 0.16 xG2–2
Shootout
- 1. OTT Jakob Silfverberg stopped
- 2. BOS Tyler Seguin stopped
- 3. OTT Kyle Turris scored
- 4. BOS Patrice Bergeron scored
- 5. OTT Daniel Alfredsson stopped
- 6. BOS Brad Marchand stopped
- 7. OTT Kaspars Daugavins stopped
- 8. BOS David Krejci scored
Penalties (10)
- P1 9:21OTTZack Smith: Boarding2 min
- P1 11:41BOSAdam McQuaid: Fighting5 min
- P1 11:41OTTPatrick Wiercioch: Instigator face shield2 min
- P1 11:41OTTPatrick Wiercioch: Instigator2 min
- P1 11:41OTTPatrick Wiercioch: Fighting5 min
- P1 11:41OTTPatrick Wiercioch: Misconduct10 min
- P1 11:41BOSAdam McQuaid: Boarding2 min
- P2 6:15BOSDavid Krejci: Slashing2 min
- P2 15:42OTTZack Smith: Tripping2 min
- P3 6:27BOSDougie Hamilton: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Turris won the faceoff against Bergeron
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- Thornton – Campbell – Paille8:43
xG 0.46–0.46 (50%)attempts 12–8goals 1–0
- Krejci – Peverley – Caron2:16
xG 0.02–0.05 (32%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Horton – Krejci – Lucic12:03
xG 0.27–0.48 (37%)attempts 14–5goals 0–2
- Kelly – Peverley – Caron2:38
xG 0.02–0.35 (6%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestChara – Boychuk9:09
xG 0.34–0.10 (77%)attempts 10–2goals 0–1
- Chara – McQuaid4:59
xG 0.17–0.08 (67%)attempts 3–1goals 1–1
- Seidenberg – Hamilton10:42
xG 0.15–0.18 (45%)attempts 10–6goals 0–0
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestGreening – Turris – Silfverberg10:40
xG 1.14–0.50 (69%)attempts 10–15goals 1–1
- Neil – Daugavins – Zibanejad9:03
xG 0.43–0.15 (74%)attempts 9–9goals 0–0
- Alfredsson – Latendresse – Smith13:13
xG 0.39–0.29 (57%)attempts 5–11goals 1–0
- Condra – O'Brien – Stone8:08
xG 0.10–0.15 (41%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPhillips – Benoit3:32
xG 0.60–0.05 (92%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Gonchar – Methot17:51
xG 1.08–0.60 (64%)attempts 15–20goals 0–1
- Gonchar – Phillips2:06
xG 0.27–0.02 (92%)attempts 2–1goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it BOS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 58% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − BOS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).