Tue, Mar 12, 2013·First Niagara Center, Buffalo
New York Rangers 1, Buffalo Sabres 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 68% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR | 010 | 15 | 018 | 133 |
| BUF | 07 | 212 | 13 | 322 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 4:17NYRDerek StepanSHAssists: Ryan Callahan · Slap, 0.27 xG1–0
- P2 5:35BUFMarcus FolignoAssists: Christian Ehrhoff, Andrej Sekera · Wrist, 0.28 xG1–1
- P2 12:40BUFThomas VanekGWGAssists: Jason Pominville, Cody Hodgson · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–2
- P3 11:48BUFMarcus FolignoAssists: Andrej Sekera, Brian Flynn · Snap, 0.43 xG1–3
Penalties (6)
- P2 2:30NYRDarroll Powe: Tripping2 min
- P2 9:50NYRJeff Halpern: Slashing2 min
- P2 14:07NYRMatt Gilroy: Tripping2 min
- P2 16:43NYRDan Girardi: Tripping2 min
- P3 6:36NYRCarl Hagelin: High sticking2 min
- P3 8:50BUFJochen Hecht: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Hodgson won the faceoff against Richards
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestCallahan – Haley – Stepan3:54
xG 0.21–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Pyatt – Boyle – Miller6:49
xG 0.09–0.01 (88%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Halpern – Powe – Haley4:41
xG 0.17–0.15 (53%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
- Gaborik – Callahan – Stepan6:13
xG 0.10–0.12 (45%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestStralman – McDonagh2:30
xG 0.24–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Stralman – Del Zotto12:28
xG 0.34–0.12 (73%)attempts 11–5goals 0–0
- Eminger – Del Zotto2:23
xG 0.07–0.07 (50%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestPominville – Vanek – Hodgson13:46
xG 0.70–0.42 (62%)attempts 14–20goals 1–0
- Porter – Foligno – Flynn9:27
xG 0.20–0.18 (52%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
- Gerbe – Scott – Grigorenko4:39
xG 0.01–0.06 (17%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Hecht – Ott – Stafford10:01
xG 0.10–0.19 (35%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLeopold – Sekera2:30
xG 0.54–0.03 (95%)attempts 3–2goals 1–0
- Regehr – Sekera13:41
xG 0.75–0.39 (66%)attempts 15–14goals 1–0
- Leopold – Weber11:52
xG 0.01–0.18 (7%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it NYR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 68% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − NYR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).