Tue, Mar 12, 2013·Verizon Center, Washington
Carolina Hurricanes 4, Washington Capitals 0
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 71% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 114 | 217 | 15 | 436 |
| WSH | 010 | 09 | 07 | 026 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:55CARJoe CorvoGWGAssists: Alexander Semin, Eric Staal · Wrist, 0.20 xG1–0
- P2 5:55CARRiley NashAssists: Jay Harrison, Drayson Bowman · Wrist, 0.12 xG2–0
- P2 18:26CARRiley NashAssists: Patrick Dwyer, Tim Gleason · Wrist, 0.06 xG3–0
- P3 18:39CARPatrick DwyerENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.64 xG4–0
Penalties (7)
- P1 8:51CARJussi Jokinen: Hooking2 min
- P2 10:14WSHJason Chimera: Hooking2 min
- P3 2:43WSHMatt Hendricks: High sticking2 min
- P3 5:34WSHSteve Oleksy: Fighting5 min
- P3 5:34CARDrayson Bowman: Fighting5 min
- P3 9:47WSHJoel Ward: High sticking2 min
- P3 18:24CAREric Staal: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Staal won the faceoff against Hendricks
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestJokinen – Staal – Skinner14:44
xG 1.16–0.55 (68%)attempts 18–10goals 0–0
- Dwyer – Nash – Bowman5:23
xG 0.51–0.09 (85%)attempts 10–4goals 2–0
- Brent – Wallace – Bowman3:15
xG 0.03–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Brent – Wallace – Terry4:33
xG 0.01–0.09 (11%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMcBain – Sanguinetti13:06
xG 0.49–0.38 (56%)attempts 15–15goals 0–0
- Corvo – Gleason17:13
xG 0.51–0.57 (47%)attempts 11–12goals 2–0
- Harrison – Faulk17:09
xG 0.81–0.89 (48%)attempts 22–13goals 1–0
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestRibeiro – Ovechkin – Johansson7:39
xG 0.49–0.17 (74%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
- Chimera – Ovechkin – Backstrom4:34
xG 0.12–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–0goals 0–0
- Ribeiro – Fehr – Brouwer4:24
xG 0.07–0.02 (73%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Fehr – Brouwer – Backstrom9:18
xG 0.37–0.35 (51%)attempts 6–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSchultz – Carlson15:58
xG 0.86–0.54 (62%)attempts 15–14goals 0–1
- Oleksy – Schilling9:35
xG 0.30–0.17 (63%)attempts 7–9goals 0–1
- Carlson – Schilling2:10
xG 0.00–0.17 (0%)attempts 0–4goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it CAR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 71% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WSH − CAR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).