Tue, Mar 12, 2013·CONSOL Energy Center, Pittsburgh
Boston Bruins 2, Pittsburgh Penguins 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 77% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 25 | 07 | 04 | 216 |
| PIT | 011 | 011 | 312 | 334 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:45BOSZdeno CharaPPAssists: Dennis Seidenberg, Rich Peverley · Slap, 0.03 xG1–0
- P1 13:30BOSTyler SeguinAssists: Patrice Bergeron, Brad Marchand · Wrist, 0.12 xG2–0
- P3 13:42PITChris KunitzAssists: Kris Letang, Deryk Engelland · Slap, 0.09 xG2–1
- P3 14:33PITBrandon SutterAssists: James Neal, Beau Bennett · Wrist, 0.09 xG2–2
- P3 17:57PITBrandon SutterGWGUnassisted · Snap, 0.04 xG2–3
Penalties (6)
- P1 3:03PITJoe Vitale: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
- P1 18:35BOSAndrew Ference: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 7:02BOSBrad Marchand: Tripping2 min
- P3 3:09BOSPatrice Bergeron: Tripping2 min
- P3 4:04BOSAnton Khudobin: High sticking2 min
- P3 5:48PITChris Kunitz: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Bergeron won the faceoff against Crosby
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestBergeron – Marchand – Seguin12:30
xG 0.44–0.12 (79%)attempts 12–9goals 1–0
- Thornton – Campbell – Paille8:01
xG 0.25–0.25 (50%)attempts 5–8goals 0–1
- Horton – Krejci – Lucic10:59
xG 0.23–0.46 (33%)attempts 12–11goals 0–2
- Pandolfo – Peverley – Caron7:28
xG 0.02–0.32 (6%)attempts 1–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSeidenberg – McQuaid2:32
xG 0.15–0.05 (74%)attempts 3–2goals 1–0
- Ference – Hamilton2:26
xG 0.03–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Chara – Ference2:40
xG 0.09–0.12 (44%)attempts 2–6goals 0–0
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestDupuis – Kunitz – Crosby13:04
xG 0.76–0.27 (74%)attempts 15–11goals 1–0
- Neal – Jeffrey – Bennett5:49
xG 0.34–0.04 (90%)attempts 8–1goals 0–0
- Adams – Glass – Vitale6:38
xG 0.04–0.03 (58%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Cooke – Kennedy – Sutter6:30
xG 0.19–0.34 (36%)attempts 7–6goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestEaton – Letang7:25
xG 0.43–0.12 (78%)attempts 6–2goals 1–1
- Engelland – Niskanen6:31
xG 0.38–0.09 (82%)attempts 9–2goals 0–0
- Orpik – Martin15:14
xG 0.57–0.32 (64%)attempts 17–12goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it BOS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 77% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PIT − BOS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).