Tue, Mar 12, 2013·American Airlines Center, Dallas
Nashville Predators 4, Dallas Stars 0
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 54% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH | 18 | 28 | 15 | 421 |
| DAL | 09 | 015 | 08 | 032 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 12:16NSHNick SpalingGWGAssists: Matt Halischuk · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–0
- P2 2:16NSHShea WeberPPAssists: Craig Smith, David Legwand · Backhand, 0.05 xG2–0
- P2 9:09NSHRich CluneUnassisted · Wrist, 0.24 xG3–0
- P3 14:58NSHGabriel BourquePPAssists: Craig Smith, David Legwand · Wrist, 0.16 xG4–0
Penalties (20)
- P1 6:58NSHRoman Josi: High sticking2 min
- P1 9:30DALAlex Goligoski: Delaying game2 min
- P1 16:30DALAlex Goligoski: Holding2 min
- P2 2:02DALBrenden Dillon: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 6:58NSHRich Clune: Roughing2 min
- P2 9:09DALJordie Benn: Penalty shot hooking on breakaway0 min
- P3 4:22NSHNick Spaling: Hooking2 min
- P3 8:53NSHCraig Smith: Slashing2 min
- P3 13:43DALEric Nystrom: Fighting5 min · PPG
- P3 13:43NSHRyan Ellis: Fighting5 min
- P3 13:43DALEric Nystrom: Roughing2 min
- P3 14:25DALStephane Robidas: Fighting5 min
- P3 14:25NSHMike Fisher: Fighting5 min
- P3 14:25NSHShea Weber: Fighting5 min
- P3 14:25DALAntoine Roussel: Fighting5 min
- P3 14:25DALBrenden Dillon: Roughing2 min
- P3 14:25NSHBobby Butler: Roughing2 min
- P3 14:25NSHShea Weber: Misconduct10 min
- P3 14:25DALAntoine Roussel: Misconduct10 min
- P3 17:15DALJamie Oleksiak: Misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Gaustad won the faceoff against Roussel
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- Halischuk – Spaling – Smith7:59
xG 0.30–0.27 (52%)attempts 4–14goals 1–0
- Legwand – Bourque – Butler9:20
xG 0.13–0.19 (40%)attempts 8–10goals 0–0
- Fisher – Erat – Kostitsyn7:58
xG 0.04–0.11 (27%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Gaustad – Yip – Clune5:08
xG 0.02–0.19 (9%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKlein – Bartley10:35
xG 0.35–0.28 (56%)attempts 4–11goals 0–0
- Hannan – Ellis9:56
xG 0.27–0.21 (56%)attempts 10–11goals 1–0
- Bartley – Josi2:16
xG 0.02–0.11 (13%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestWhitney – Roy – Eriksson4:41
xG 0.47–0.07 (87%)attempts 10–2goals 0–0
- Whitney – Cole – Roy9:35
xG 0.30–0.00 (99%)attempts 13–3goals 0–0
- Eriksson – Roussel – Vincour4:15
xG 0.12–0.06 (68%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Jagr – Smith – Eakin7:54
xG 0.13–0.19 (42%)attempts 7–7goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestRobidas – Dillon12:19
xG 0.51–0.16 (77%)attempts 18–5goals 0–0
- Daley – Benn14:59
xG 0.34–0.16 (69%)attempts 12–11goals 0–0
- Goligoski – Oleksiak11:14
xG 0.41–0.30 (58%)attempts 14–4goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it NSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 54% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − NSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).