Tue, Mar 12, 2013·Jobing.com Arena, Glendale
Los Angeles Kings 2, Phoenix Coyotes 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Phoenix Coyotes win this game 58% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAK | 09 | 110 | 114 | 233 |
| PHX | 213 | 28 | 18 | 529 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:25PHXMikkel BoedkerAssists: Raffi Torres, Martin Hanzal · Wrist, 0.05 xG0–1
- P1 16:47PHXShane DoanAssists: Derek Morris, Steve Sullivan · Tip-in, 0.09 xG0–2
- P2 3:27PHXMikkel BoedkerPPGWGAssists: Keith Yandle · Wrist, 0.12 xG0–3
- P2 12:33PHXRaffi TorresAssists: Shane Doan · Wrist, 0.31 xG0–4
- P2 17:37LAKMike RichardsPPAssists: Slava Voynov, Jarret Stoll · Slap, 0.04 xG1–4
- P3 4:47LAKDustin BrownPPAssists: Jake Muzzin, Anze Kopitar · Tip-in, 0.15 xG2–4
- P3 10:55PHXRob KlinkhammerAssists: David Moss, Rostislav Klesla · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–5
Penalties (8)
- P1 6:53PHXRostislav Klesla: Boarding2 min
- P1 14:15PHXLauri Korpikoski: Cross checking2 min
- P2 2:44LAKJake Muzzin: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 9:20LAKJake Muzzin: Interference2 min
- P2 16:06PHXMartin Hanzal: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P3 4:33PHXDerek Morris: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P3 8:14LAKJake Muzzin: Hooking2 min
- P3 16:58PHXDerek Morris: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Hanzal won the faceoff against Kopitar
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestWilliams – Brown – Kopitar14:20
xG 0.51–0.26 (66%)attempts 26–8goals 0–1
- Stoll – Lewis – King9:07
xG 0.22–0.24 (48%)attempts 10–6goals 0–1
- Fraser – Clifford – Nolan3:38
xG 0.14–0.46 (23%)attempts 5–5goals 0–1
- Carter – Richards – Penner13:03
xG 0.15–0.65 (18%)attempts 9–15goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMuzzin – Doughty18:59
xG 0.78–0.29 (73%)attempts 29–11goals 0–0
- Ellerby – Voynov2:49
xG 0.00–0.09 (0%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Scuderi – Voynov9:51
xG 0.09–0.28 (24%)attempts 10–8goals 0–1
Phoenix Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestMoss – Gordon – Klinkhammer10:25
xG 0.61–0.22 (74%)attempts 13–12goals 1–0
- Sullivan – Doan – Vermette8:29
xG 0.30–0.06 (84%)attempts 8–3goals 1–0
- Torres – Bissonnette – Chipchura5:40
xG 0.08–0.18 (31%)attempts 4–8goals 0–0
- Korpikoski – Hanzal – Boedker12:23
xG 0.16–0.33 (32%)attempts 5–19goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSummers – Stone9:10
xG 0.61–0.06 (92%)attempts 13–5goals 1–0
- Morris – Yandle17:42
xG 0.64–0.29 (69%)attempts 15–16goals 1–0
- Klesla – Ekman-Larsson14:47
xG 0.20–0.50 (28%)attempts 7–26goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHX's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHX is favoured, below it LAK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Phoenix Coyotes win this game 58% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHX − LAK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).