Wed, Mar 13, 2013·Centre Bell, Montreal
Ottawa Senators 3, Montréal Canadiens 4 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 76% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 113 | 113 | 13 | 03 | 1 | 332 |
| MTL | 117 | 211 | 013 | 04 | 2 | 445 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:02MTLLars EllerAssists: Gabriel Dumont, Josh Gorges · Wrist, 0.34 xG0–1
- P1 10:26OTTMika ZibanejadPPAssists: Jakob Silfverberg, Chris Neil · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–1
- P2 6:40MTLBrendan GallagherPPAssists: Max Pacioretty, P.K. Subban · Tip-in, 0.33 xG1–2
- P2 17:11MTLP.K. SubbanPPAssists: Andrei Markov, Tomas Plekanec · Slap, 0.05 xG1–3
- P2 19:58OTTDaniel AlfredssonPPAssists: Kyle Turris, Sergei Gonchar · Wrist, 0.16 xG2–3
- P3 1:50OTTPatrick WierciochAssists: Andre Benoit, Zack Smith · Wrist, 0.09 xG3–3
Shootout
- 1. MTL Alex Galchenyuk scored
- 2. OTT Daniel Alfredsson stopped
- 3. MTL David Desharnais stopped
- 4. OTT Jakob Silfverberg scored
- 5. MTL Lars Eller scored
- 6. OTT Kyle Turris stopped
Penalties (12)
- P1 8:28MTLColby Armstrong: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 5:36OTTMark Stone: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 12:47MTLAndrei Markov: Roughing2 min
- P2 15:30OTTEric Gryba: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P2 18:19MTLAlexei Emelin: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 0:00OTTKaspars Daugavins: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 0:00MTLColby Armstrong: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 2:56OTTChris Phillips: Holding2 min
- P3 2:56OTTChris Neil: Roughing2 min
- P3 2:56MTLTravis Moen: Roughing2 min
- P3 9:17OTTEric Gryba: Hooking2 min
- P3 12:06OTTPatrick Wiercioch: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Turris won the faceoff against Plekanec
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against. Shift data for this game is incomplete, so treat these as rough.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestAlfredsson – Latendresse – Smith7:04
xG 0.26–0.15 (64%)attempts 10–7goals 0–0
- Neil – Condra – Zibanejad2:14
xG 0.00–0.14 (0%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Greening – Turris – Silfverberg5:58
xG 0.22–0.62 (26%)attempts 6–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBenoit – Wiercioch4:11
xG 0.37–0.14 (72%)attempts 9–2goals 0–0
- Gonchar – Methot11:37
xG 0.26–0.59 (30%)attempts 10–14goals 0–0
- Phillips – Gryba11:25
xG 0.01–0.68 (2%)attempts 6–20goals 0–0
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestEller – Dumont – Galchenyuk6:42
xG 1.30–0.32 (80%)attempts 19–6goals 1–0
- Desharnais – Pacioretty – Gallagher8:16
xG 0.54–0.04 (93%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
- Gionta – Ryder – Plekanec7:49
xG 0.31–0.11 (73%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
- Moen – Armstrong – White5:15
xG 0.10–0.13 (43%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGorges – Subban9:48
xG 1.13–0.32 (78%)attempts 16–11goals 1–0
- Bouillon – Pateryn5:08
xG 0.65–0.10 (86%)attempts 10–5goals 0–0
- Markov – Emelin11:43
xG 0.52–0.25 (68%)attempts 17–10goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 76% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MTL − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).