Wed, Mar 13, 2013·Prudential Center, Newark
Philadelphia Flyers 2, New Jersey Devils 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 65% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 111 | 07 | 17 | 225 |
| NJD | 39 | 113 | 110 | 532 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:02NJDPatrik EliasAssists: Adam Henrique, Steve Bernier · Backhand, 0.14 xG0–1
- P1 9:45PHIJakub VoracekPPAssists: Wayne Simmonds, Claude Giroux · Wrist, 0.17 xG1–1
- P1 10:21NJDAdam HenriqueAssists: Patrik Elias, Johan Hedberg · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–2
- P1 17:18NJDIlya KovalchukSHGWGAssists: Stephen Gionta · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–3
- P2 6:31NJDAndrei LoktionovAssists: Alexei Ponikarovsky · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–4
- P3 1:16NJDAdam HenriquePPAssists: Andrei Loktionov, Marek Zidlicky · Backhand, 0.09 xG1–5
- P3 16:08PHIScott HartnellAssists: Jakub Voracek · Snap, 0.12 xG2–5
Penalties (12)
- P1 2:34NJDTom Kostopoulos: Tripping2 min
- P1 9:13NJDRyan Carter: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 15:57NJDBryce Salvador: Interference2 min
- P1 17:47PHIWayne Simmonds: Interference2 min
- P2 8:02NJDAnton Volchenkov: Hooking2 min
- P2 12:09PHIDaniel Brière: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 19:39PHIBruno Gervais: Closing hand on puck2 min · PPG
- P3 3:09PHIScott Hartnell: Boarding2 min
- P3 9:20PHIScott Hartnell: Slashing2 min
- P3 9:20NJDTom Kostopoulos: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 9:20PHIScott Hartnell: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 18:13PHIScott Hartnell: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Zajac won the faceoff against Giroux
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestSimmonds – Schenn – Read10:39
xG 0.44–0.08 (84%)attempts 9–2goals 0–1
- Hartnell – Giroux – Voracek11:53
xG 0.65–0.82 (44%)attempts 9–17goals 1–0
- Brière – Gagne – Couturier5:08
xG 0.09–0.35 (21%)attempts 3–8goals 0–2
- Fedotenko – Talbot – Rinaldo6:00
xG 0.01–0.35 (4%)attempts 1–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestTimonen – Gervais8:25
xG 0.24–0.19 (56%)attempts 5–9goals 1–0
- Coburn – Grossmann13:10
xG 0.26–0.23 (53%)attempts 7–7goals 0–1
- Timonen – Meszaros3:06
xG 0.00–0.12 (0%)attempts 0–6goals 0–0
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestElias – Bernier – Henrique7:20
xG 0.45–0.15 (75%)attempts 8–3goals 2–0
- Clarkson – Zajac – Carter9:45
xG 0.91–0.62 (59%)attempts 17–4goals 0–1
- Kostopoulos – Barch – Gionta5:30
xG 0.15–0.01 (92%)attempts 7–1goals 0–0
- Ponikarovsky – Kovalchuk – Loktionov8:14
xG 0.21–0.11 (66%)attempts 6–5goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestSalvador – Zidlicky14:41
xG 1.26–0.44 (74%)attempts 22–9goals 1–1
- Volchenkov – Harrold8:41
xG 0.30–0.02 (95%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Greene – Larsson14:18
xG 0.19–0.29 (40%)attempts 9–9goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NJD's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NJD is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 65% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NJD − PHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).