Thu, Mar 14, 2013·MTS Centre, Winnipeg
New York Rangers 1, Winnipeg Jets 3
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 77% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR | 011 | 111 | 07 | 129 |
| WPG | 113 | 19 | 111 | 333 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:58WPGNik AntropovPPAssists: Dustin Byfuglien, Kyle Wellwood · Backhand, 0.44 xG0–1
- P2 1:11NYRRyan CallahanAssists: Derek Stepan, Ryan McDonagh · Backhand, 0.15 xG1–1
- P2 14:52WPGAntti MiettinenGWGAssists: Dustin Byfuglien, Grant Clitsome · Deflected, 0.19 xG1–2
- P3 19:21WPGAndrew LaddENAssists: Blake Wheeler, Olli Jokinen · Wrist, 0.74 xG1–3
Penalties (6)
- P1 1:46NYRMichael Del Zotto: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P1 2:45WPGMark Stuart: Fighting5 min
- P1 2:45NYRMicheal Haley: Fighting5 min
- P1 11:17WPGDustin Byfuglien: Penalty shot hooking on breakaway0 min
- P2 2:26WPGNik Antropov: Interference2 min
- P2 2:32NYRDerek Stepan: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- Press play, or drag along the timeline.
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestGaborik – Callahan – Stepan11:46
xG 0.78–0.49 (61%)attempts 17–6goals 1–1
- Pyatt – Boyle – Miller4:28
xG 0.14–0.04 (78%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Halpern – Powe – Haley2:28
xG 0.02–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Richards – Gaborik – Hagelin2:20
xG 0.09–0.11 (43%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGirardi – McDonagh19:06
xG 0.90–0.30 (75%)attempts 21–15goals 1–0
- Hamrlik – Eminger5:14
xG 0.51–0.02 (95%)attempts 9–2goals 0–0
- Eminger – Del Zotto6:42
xG 0.07–0.02 (78%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestLadd – Wheeler – Little14:18
xG 0.99–0.23 (81%)attempts 21–9goals 0–0
- Jokinen – Miettinen – Kane14:47
xG 1.30–0.84 (61%)attempts 20–21goals 1–1
- Thorburn – Tangradi – Cormier2:39
xG 0.00–0.02 (0%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Antropov – Wellwood – Tangradi2:30
xG 0.00–0.19 (0%)attempts 0–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHainsey – Bogosian19:37
xG 1.71–0.44 (80%)attempts 29–21goals 0–0
- Meech – Stuart12:45
xG 0.21–0.57 (27%)attempts 8–10goals 0–0
- Byfuglien – Clitsome18:59
xG 0.49–1.01 (33%)attempts 13–25goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WPG's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WPG is favoured, below it NYR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 77% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WPG − NYR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).