Thu, Mar 14, 2013·American Airlines Center, Dallas
Anaheim Ducks 2, Dallas Stars 1 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 50% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANA | 011 | 115 | 03 | 01 | 2 | 230 |
| DAL | 111 | 07 | 012 | 04 | 0 | 134 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 12:35DALRay WhitneyAssists: Loui Eriksson, Alex Goligoski · Wrist, 0.14 xG0–1
- P2 7:28ANAAndrew CoglianoAssists: Peter Holland, Daniel Winnik · Backhand, 0.27 xG1–1
Shootout
- 1. ANA Bobby Ryan scored
- 2. DAL Loui Eriksson stopped
- 3. ANA Teemu Selanne stopped
- 4. DAL Ray Whitney stopped
- 5. ANA Ryan Getzlaf scored
Penalties (10)
- P1 14:17ANASheldon Souray: Hooking2 min
- P1 18:40ANAFrancois Beauchemin: Cross checking2 min
- P1 18:54DALJaromir Jagr: Interference2 min
- P2 4:25DALVernon Fiddler: Fighting5 min
- P2 4:25ANALuca Sbisa: Fighting5 min
- P2 4:25DALVernon Fiddler: Roughing2 min
- P2 17:20DALReilly Smith: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 19:58ANADaniel Winnik: Interference2 min
- P3 9:28ANAMatt Beleskey: High sticking2 min
- P3 15:23ANARyan Getzlaf: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Koivu won the faceoff against Fiddler
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestBeleskey – Palmieri – Holland4:08
xG 0.12–0.03 (79%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Koivu – Winnik – Cogliano8:24
xG 0.21–0.25 (46%)attempts 12–5goals 0–0
- Ryan – Palmieri – Holland6:16
xG 0.04–0.16 (18%)attempts 2–6goals 0–0
- Selanne – Getzlaf – Beleskey5:31
xG 0.19–0.39 (33%)attempts 8–9goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Lovejoy – Sbisa11:00
xG 0.29–0.40 (42%)attempts 13–13goals 0–0
- Souray – Beauchemin10:55
xG 0.10–0.27 (27%)attempts 11–7goals 0–0
- Allen – Fowler13:39
xG 0.22–0.47 (32%)attempts 12–16goals 0–1
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestJagr – Smith – Eakin7:52
xG 0.32–0.14 (69%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
- Fiddler – Nystrom – Garbutt7:14
xG 0.33–0.20 (62%)attempts 7–11goals 0–0
- Morrow – Cole – Roussel5:42
xG 0.13–0.10 (57%)attempts 2–8goals 0–0
- Whitney – Roy – Eriksson12:49
xG 0.49–0.58 (46%)attempts 15–9goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestRobidas – Dillon14:14
xG 0.84–0.23 (79%)attempts 17–14goals 0–0
- Larsen – Benn10:59
xG 0.20–0.21 (49%)attempts 8–9goals 0–0
- Daley – Goligoski14:15
xG 0.59–0.70 (46%)attempts 16–18goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it ANA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 50% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − ANA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).