Thu, Mar 14, 2013·HP Pavilion at San Jose, San Jose
Los Angeles Kings 3, San Jose Sharks 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 54% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAK | 016 | 17 | 214 | 337 |
| SJS | 16 | 213 | 17 | 426 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 11:09SJSBrent BurnsAssists: Logan Couture, Patrick Marleau · Wrist, 0.31 xG0–1
- P2 7:07SJSMatt IrwinPPAssists: Ryane Clowe, Scott Gomez · Wrist, 0.04 xG0–2
- P2 8:34SJSLogan CouturePPAssists: Joe Thornton, Dan Boyle · Slap, 0.06 xG0–3
- P2 9:48LAKDustin BrownPPAssists: Anze Kopitar, Justin Williams · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–3
- P3 0:27SJSLogan CoutureGWGAssists: Brent Burns · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–4
- P3 12:48LAKDustin BrownAssists: Justin Williams, Rob Scuderi · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–4
- P3 16:40LAKDwight KingAssists: Rob Scuderi, Keaton Ellerby · Wrist, 0.25 xG3–4
Penalties (9)
- P1 7:21SJSPatrick Marleau: Tripping2 min
- P1 19:33SJSTommy Wingels: Holding2 min
- P2 5:59SJSAndrew Desjardins: Fighting5 min · PPG
- P2 5:59LAKJake Muzzin: Instigator face shield2 min · PPG
- P2 5:59LAKJake Muzzin: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 5:59LAKJake Muzzin: Fighting5 min · PPG
- P2 5:59LAKJake Muzzin: Misconduct10 min
- P2 9:27SJSJustin Braun: Hooking2 min
- P2 16:16LAKSlava Voynov: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Thornton won the faceoff against Carter
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestStoll – Lewis – King11:45
xG 1.06–0.59 (64%)attempts 10–11goals 1–0
- Williams – Brown – Kopitar12:04
xG 0.65–0.22 (75%)attempts 17–5goals 1–1
- Fraser – Clifford – Nolan5:56
xG 0.26–0.49 (34%)attempts 5–9goals 0–0
- Carter – Richards – Penner9:44
xG 0.19–0.56 (26%)attempts 11–9goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestScuderi – Voynov14:17
xG 1.32–0.76 (63%)attempts 15–11goals 1–0
- Martinez – Ellerby6:49
xG 0.16–0.07 (70%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Martinez – Voynov4:15
xG 0.10–0.01 (89%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- Handzus – Burish – Desjardins6:16
xG 0.19–0.29 (39%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
- Marleau – Clowe – Pavelski11:09
xG 0.06–0.54 (10%)attempts 5–13goals 0–0
- Gomez – Sheppard – Wingels8:41
xG 0.07–1.11 (6%)attempts 4–12goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Boyle – Irwin11:52
xG 0.50–0.51 (50%)attempts 13–11goals 0–1
- Stuart – Murray10:04
xG 0.12–0.29 (29%)attempts 7–12goals 0–0
- Vlasic – Braun10:55
xG 0.42–1.19 (26%)attempts 5–14goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SJS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SJS is favoured, below it LAK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 54% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SJS − LAK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).