Fri, Mar 15, 2013·Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia
New Jersey Devils 1, Philadelphia Flyers 2 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 66% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJD | 010 | 17 | 05 | 06 | 1 | 128 |
| PHI | 110 | 07 | 03 | 02 | 2 | 222 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 15:21PHIMax TalbotAssists: Simon Gagne, Matt Read · Wrist, 0.11 xG0–1
- P2 6:09NJDDavid ClarksonAssists: Bryce Salvador, Marek Zidlicky · Tip-in, 0.12 xG1–1
Shootout
- 1. PHI Matt Read scored
- 2. NJD Ilya Kovalchuk scored
- 3. PHI Claude Giroux scored
- 4. NJD David Clarkson stopped
- 5. PHI Daniel Brière stopped
- 6. NJD Patrik Elias stopped
Penalties (9)
- P1 9:02NJDAndy Greene: Slashing2 min
- P1 10:34PHIJakub Voracek: Hooking2 min
- P1 10:34PHIWayne Simmonds: Roughing2 min
- P2 2:38NJDBryce Salvador: Holding2 min
- P2 17:40PHIZac Rinaldo: Boarding2 min
- P3 0:15NJDMarek Zidlicky: High sticking2 min
- P3 8:51PHIScott Hartnell: Slashing2 min
- P3 13:12NJDAnton Volchenkov: Interference2 min
- P3 18:18PHIBrayden Schenn: Charging2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Zajac won the faceoff against Schenn
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestElias – Bernier – Henrique6:40
xG 0.18–0.01 (96%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Clarkson – Zajac – Carter7:24
xG 0.23–0.12 (66%)attempts 8–5goals 1–0
- Kostopoulos – Barch – Gionta3:04
xG 0.11–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Ponikarovsky – Kovalchuk – Loktionov3:05
xG 0.08–0.03 (72%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSalvador – Zidlicky14:35
xG 0.36–0.04 (90%)attempts 8–6goals 1–0
- Volchenkov – Harrold12:15
xG 0.28–0.04 (88%)attempts 9–4goals 0–0
- Greene – Larsson13:49
xG 0.24–0.28 (46%)attempts 9–10goals 0–1
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- Fedotenko – Rinaldo – Couturier6:46
xG 0.04–0.08 (36%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Hartnell – Giroux – Voracek12:06
xG 0.09–0.15 (38%)attempts 10–7goals 0–0
- Gagne – Talbot – Read9:58
xG 0.13–0.25 (35%)attempts 3–5goals 1–0
- Brière – Simmonds – Schenn8:53
xG 0.10–0.35 (22%)attempts 4–8goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Timonen – Schenn12:41
xG 0.11–0.13 (46%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
- Coburn – Grossmann14:11
xG 0.13–0.18 (43%)attempts 11–6goals 0–0
- Gervais – Meszaros9:04
xG 0.13–0.38 (25%)attempts 5–8goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it NJD. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 66% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − NJD), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).