Fri, Mar 15, 2013·Rexall Place, Edmonton
Detroit Red Wings 3, Edmonton Oilers 2 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 52% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 05 | 09 | 213 | 12 | 329 |
| EDM | 110 | 116 | 06 | 00 | 232 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:34EDMTaylor HallAssists: Shawn Horcoff, Ales Hemsky · Snap, 0.08 xG0–1
- P2 16:18EDMSam GagnerAssists: Nail Yakupov, Taylor Hall · Snap, 0.32 xG0–2
- P3 4:27DETValtteri FilppulaAssists: Henrik Zetterberg · Backhand, 0.05 xG1–2
- P3 14:07DETNiklas KronwallPPUnassisted · Wrist, 0.34 xG2–2
- OT 3:39DETPavel DatsyukGWGAssists: Johan Franzen, Niklas Kronwall · Snap, 0.06 xG3–2
Penalties (10)
- P1 5:47DETBrendan Smith: Interference2 min
- P1 12:47EDMLadislav Smid: Hooking2 min
- P1 16:27DETDaniel Cleary: Boarding2 min
- P2 8:27DETJakub Kindl: Slashing2 min
- P2 9:06EDMTaylor Hall: High sticking2 min
- P2 11:43EDMMike Brown: Fighting5 min
- P2 11:43DETJordin Tootoo: Fighting5 min
- P3 5:01EDMTeemu Hartikainen: Boarding2 min
- P3 8:11EDMShawn Horcoff: Delaying game face off violation2 min
- P3 13:26EDMMike Brown: High sticking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Zetterberg won the faceoff against Horcoff
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestDatsyuk – Franzen – Abdelkader5:38
xG 0.22–0.03 (89%)attempts 9–2goals 0–0
- Cleary – Andersson – Nyquist5:49
xG 0.66–0.64 (51%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- Tootoo – Miller – Emmerton5:43
xG 0.09–0.17 (35%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Cleary – Abdelkader – Andersson3:56
xG 0.00–0.17 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestQuincey – Smith12:09
xG 0.38–0.08 (82%)attempts 10–7goals 0–0
- Kronwall – Lashoff4:47
xG 0.33–0.16 (67%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
- Ericsson – Kindl6:16
xG 0.08–0.12 (40%)attempts 4–3goals 1–0
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestHorcoff – Hemsky – Hall10:22
xG 0.90–0.36 (71%)attempts 12–10goals 1–1
- Gagner – Paajarvi – Yakupov7:33
xG 0.33–0.12 (74%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
- Eberle – Hartikainen – Nugent-Hopkins7:42
xG 0.81–0.61 (57%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- Smyth – Brown – Petrell4:58
xG 0.17–0.13 (57%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSmid – Petry16:07
xG 0.85–0.23 (79%)attempts 11–11goals 2–0
- Schultz – Potter13:37
xG 0.70–0.31 (69%)attempts 13–12goals 0–0
- Whitney – Schultz13:36
xG 1.31–0.96 (58%)attempts 13–13goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 52% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).