Sat, Mar 16, 2013·TD Garden, Boston
Washington Capitals 1, Boston Bruins 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 56% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 08 | 114 | 011 | 133 |
| BOS | 212 | 115 | 111 | 438 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 14:12BOSNathan HortonAssists: Milan Lucic, Zdeno Chara · Slap, 0.09 xG0–1
- P1 17:15BOSDavid KrejciGWGAssists: Milan Lucic, Nathan Horton · Wrist, 0.06 xG0–2
- P2 1:24WSHMarcus JohanssonUnassisted · Wrist, 0.16 xG1–2
- P2 8:02BOSAndrew FerenceAssists: Nathan Horton, David Krejci · Snap, 0.08 xG1–3
- P3 2:41BOSRich PeverleyPPAssists: Milan Lucic, David Krejci · Backhand, 0.19 xG1–4
Penalties (12)
- P1 19:14BOSDavid Krejci: Interference2 min
- P2 6:01WSHMatt Hendricks: Roughing2 min
- P2 6:01BOSAdam McQuaid: Roughing2 min
- P2 10:23BOSAdam McQuaid: Roughing2 min
- P2 19:41BOSBrad Marchand: Fighting5 min
- P2 19:41WSHMike Ribeiro: Fighting5 min · PPG
- P2 19:49WSHMatt Hendricks: Fighting5 min
- P2 19:49BOSNathan Horton: Fighting5 min
- P3 2:32WSHJack Hillen: Slashing2 min
- P3 10:26WSHMatt Hendricks: Fighting5 min
- P3 10:26BOSAdam McQuaid: Fighting5 min
- P3 10:26BOSShawn Thornton: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Ribeiro won the faceoff against Bergeron
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestFehr – Brouwer – Johansson9:34
xG 0.30–0.09 (77%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
- Hendricks – Ovechkin – Backstrom3:06
xG 0.30–0.14 (69%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Chimera – Ribeiro – Ward8:22
xG 0.33–0.23 (60%)attempts 6–10goals 0–0
- Crabb – Beagle – Volpatti2:26
xG 0.10–0.02 (86%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSchultz – Carlson12:18
xG 0.30–0.15 (67%)attempts 7–9goals 0–0
- Poti – Schultz2:54
xG 0.06–0.02 (79%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Hillen – Carlson3:28
xG 0.07–0.03 (69%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestThornton – Campbell – Paille9:59
xG 0.47–0.24 (66%)attempts 7–10goals 0–0
- Horton – Krejci – Lucic10:08
xG 0.52–0.48 (52%)attempts 10–8goals 2–1
- Bergeron – Marchand – Seguin11:16
xG 0.23–0.35 (39%)attempts 9–11goals 0–0
- Pandolfo – Peverley – Caron7:58
xG 0.20–0.36 (36%)attempts 10–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSeidenberg – McQuaid3:07
xG 0.25–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Chara – Boychuk12:23
xG 0.48–0.31 (60%)attempts 10–11goals 1–0
- Chara – Seidenberg2:02
xG 0.16–0.03 (84%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BOS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BOS is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 56% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BOS − WSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).