Sat, Mar 16, 2013·Pepsi Center, Denver
Minnesota Wild 6, Colorado Avalanche 4
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 58% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 414 | 19 | 15 | 628 |
| COL | 18 | 213 | 111 | 432 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:16MINRyan SuterPPAssists: Jared Spurgeon, Zach Parise · Slap, 0.04 xG1–0
- P1 6:00MINDevin SetoguchiAssists: Matt Cullen, Clayton Stoner · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–0
- P1 9:04MINCal ClutterbuckAssists: Dany Heatley, Ryan Suter · Wrist, 0.29 xG3–0
- P1 14:11COLJohn MitchellAssists: Aaron Palushaj · Wrist, 0.02 xG3–1
- P1 17:18MINKyle BrodziakAssists: Dany Heatley, Devin Setoguchi · Wrist, 0.16 xG4–1
- P2 2:45COLPA ParenteauAssists: Matt Duchene, Gabriel Landeskog · Wrist, 0.12 xG4–2
- P2 10:23COLGabriel LandeskogAssists: Matt Duchene, Ryan O'Reilly · Wrist, 0.13 xG4–3
- P2 12:02MINPierre-Marc BouchardGWGUnassisted · Backhand, 0.04 xG5–3
- P3 10:22MINDevin SetoguchiAssists: Pierre-Marc Bouchard, Justin Falk · Wrist, 0.15 xG6–3
- P3 18:07COLChuck KobasewAssists: Cody McLeod, Greg Zanon · Wrist, 0.12 xG6–4
Penalties (10)
- P1 0:32COLRyan O'Byrne: Fighting5 min · PPG
- P1 0:32MINJustin Falk: Fighting5 min
- P1 0:32COLJohn Mitchell: Roughing2 min
- P1 0:32MINJustin Falk: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P1 0:32MINTom Gilbert: Roughing2 min
- P1 2:57COLJamie McGinn: Roughing2 min
- P1 4:20COLPatrick Bordeleau: Fighting5 min
- P1 4:20MINMike Rupp: Fighting5 min
- P1 19:43COLJohn Mitchell: Tripping2 min
- P2 8:17MINCal Clutterbuck: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Duchene won the faceoff against Brodziak
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestHeatley – Brodziak – Clutterbuck12:55
xG 0.70–0.33 (68%)attempts 11–10goals 1–2
- Cullen – Bouchard – Setoguchi9:04
xG 0.41–0.14 (75%)attempts 8–4goals 3–0
- Rupp – Konopka – Mitchell2:58
xG 0.01–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
- Koivu – Parise – Coyle12:44
xG 0.39–0.42 (48%)attempts 10–13goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSuter – Brodin19:31
xG 0.72–0.36 (67%)attempts 16–13goals 1–0
- Stoner – Spurgeon14:02
xG 0.68–0.36 (65%)attempts 12–11goals 2–2
- Gilbert – Falk11:20
xG 0.53–0.37 (59%)attempts 13–9goals 2–2
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- Parenteau – O'Reilly – Landeskog2:13
xG 0.00–0.06 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–1
- Mitchell – Jones – Stastny9:44
xG 0.27–0.38 (41%)attempts 9–4goals 0–1
- Parenteau – McGinn – Duchene13:54
xG 0.37–0.63 (37%)attempts 12–15goals 1–2
- Palushaj – O'Reilly – Landeskog11:21
xG 0.39–0.76 (34%)attempts 11–15goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestHejda – O'Brien12:15
xG 0.25–0.19 (56%)attempts 14–9goals 1–1
- Hejda – Hunwick3:12
xG 0.09–0.10 (47%)attempts 1–3goals 0–1
- O'Byrne – Hejda2:45
xG 0.00–0.05 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 58% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − MIN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).