Sat, Mar 16, 2013·Prudential Center, Newark
Montréal Canadiens 2, New Jersey Devils 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 72% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 19 | 04 | 19 | 222 |
| NJD | 07 | 18 | 018 | 133 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:08MTLColby ArmstrongUnassisted · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–0
- P2 3:54NJDPeter HarroldPPAssists: Ilya Kovalchuk · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–1
- P3 6:49MTLTomas PlekanecGWGAssists: Jarred Tinordi · Tip-in, 0.09 xG2–1
Penalties (6)
- P1 18:28NJDDavid Clarkson: Roughing2 min
- P2 2:32MTLRyan White: Holding the stick2 min · PPG
- P2 8:11MTLTravis Moen: Closing hand on puck2 min
- P2 8:35NJDPatrik Elias: Holding2 min
- P2 12:41NJDPeter Harrold: Hooking2 min
- P2 18:36MTLAlexei Emelin: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Henrique won the faceoff against Plekanec
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestDesharnais – Pacioretty – Gallagher12:23
xG 0.48–0.38 (56%)attempts 13–7goals 0–0
- Eller – Dumont – Galchenyuk8:23
xG 0.22–0.19 (53%)attempts 4–10goals 0–0
- Armstrong – Eller – Galchenyuk2:54
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Armstrong – Blunden – White5:02
xG 0.05–0.09 (34%)attempts 2–6goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestGorges – Subban14:36
xG 0.76–0.42 (64%)attempts 15–11goals 0–0
- Bouillon – Tinordi14:38
xG 0.26–0.42 (39%)attempts 11–12goals 2–0
- Gorges – Emelin2:14
xG 0.00–0.17 (0%)attempts 0–5goals 0–0
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestPonikarovsky – Kovalchuk – Zajac11:24
xG 0.47–0.25 (66%)attempts 15–5goals 0–0
- Elias – Clarkson – Gionta3:17
xG 0.09–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Bernier – Carter – Henrique10:05
xG 0.31–0.22 (58%)attempts 9–7goals 0–1
- Elias – Clarkson – Pesonen5:55
xG 0.09–0.00 (97%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGreene – Larsson13:11
xG 0.87–0.10 (90%)attempts 17–7goals 0–0
- Zidlicky – Greene3:24
xG 0.25–0.01 (95%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Volchenkov – Harrold6:28
xG 0.10–0.03 (80%)attempts 4–1goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NJD's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NJD is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 72% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NJD − MTL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).