Sat, Mar 16, 2013·American Airlines Center, Dallas
Chicago Blackhawks 8, Dallas Stars 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 95% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHI | 311 | 39 | 214 | 834 |
| DAL | 03 | 05 | 111 | 119 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:05CHIJonathan ToewsAssists: Nick Leddy, Brandon Saad · Deflected, 0.21 xG1–0
- P1 10:40CHIJonathan ToewsGWGAssists: Brandon Saad, Duncan Keith · Backhand, 0.14 xG2–0
- P1 17:54CHINick LeddyAssists: Viktor Stalberg, Bryan Bickell · Wrist, 0.55 xG3–0
- P2 8:01CHIJohnny OduyaAssists: Viktor Stalberg, Bryan Bickell · Slap, 0.03 xG4–0
- P2 12:18CHIMarian HossaAssists: Patrick Kane, Brent Seabrook · Deflected, 0.15 xG5–0
- P2 19:09CHIMarian HossaPPAssists: Jonathan Toews, Patrick Kane · Snap, 0.13 xG6–0
- P3 2:06CHIDuncan KeithAssists: Bryan Bickell, Viktor Stalberg · Snap, 0.13 xG7–0
- P3 6:30DALTrevor DaleyPPAssists: Jamie Benn, Ray Whitney · Slap, 0.04 xG7–1
- P3 9:59CHIPatrick KanePPAssists: Dave Bolland, Nick Leddy · Backhand, 0.03 xG8–1
Penalties (12)
- P1 2:50CHIBrent Seabrook: Interference2 min
- P1 12:48DALBrenden Morrow: Boarding2 min
- P2 5:09DALAlex Goligoski: Tripping2 min
- P2 11:37CHIMarcus Kruger: Interference2 min
- P2 11:37DALDerek Roy: Diving2 min
- P2 17:52DALErik Cole: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 18:15CHIBrent Seabrook: Fighting5 min
- P2 18:15DALAntoine Roussel: Fighting5 min
- P2 18:15DALAntoine Roussel: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 5:31CHINick Leddy: Interference2 min · PPG
- P3 8:39DALVernon Fiddler: Interference goalkeeper2 min · PPG
- P3 10:41DALBrenden Dillon: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Benn won the faceoff against Toews
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestBickell – Stalberg – Shaw9:55
xG 0.98–0.40 (71%)attempts 9–5goals 2–0
- Hossa – Toews – Saad8:43
xG 0.60–0.19 (76%)attempts 8–4goals 1–0
- Frolik – Kruger – Bollig5:55
xG 0.15–0.13 (54%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- Bolland – Kane – Hayes8:24
xG 0.28–0.37 (43%)attempts 5–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKeith – Hjalmarsson2:34
xG 1.46–0.03 (98%)attempts 10–1goals 1–0
- Rozsival – Leddy12:18
xG 1.24–0.24 (84%)attempts 17–4goals 2–0
- Oduya – Hjalmarsson13:31
xG 0.92–0.28 (76%)attempts 15–5goals 1–0
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestJagr – Roy – Eriksson10:03
xG 0.48–0.36 (57%)attempts 11–7goals 0–0
- Fiddler – Nystrom – Smith2:02
xG 0.21–0.12 (63%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Fiddler – Nystrom – Roussel5:27
xG 0.20–0.83 (19%)attempts 6–7goals 0–1
- Morrow – Smith – Eakin6:13
xG 0.00–0.76 (0%)attempts 0–6goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestRobidas – Daley3:53
xG 0.35–0.05 (88%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Dillon – Oleksiak9:20
xG 0.49–0.33 (60%)attempts 10–5goals 0–0
- Robidas – Goligoski2:20
xG 0.00–0.02 (0%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it CHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 95% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − CHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).