Sat, Mar 16, 2013·STAPLES Center, Los Angeles
San Jose Sharks 2, Los Angeles Kings 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 63% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJS | 05 | 110 | 17 | 222 |
| LAK | 212 | 39 | 03 | 524 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:27LAKKyle CliffordAssists: Slava Voynov, Rob Scuderi · Snap, 0.07 xG0–1
- P1 12:19LAKJustin WilliamsAssists: Dustin Brown, Anze Kopitar · Wrist, 0.16 xG0–2
- P2 0:35SJSPatrick MarleauAssists: Joe Thornton, Brent Burns · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–2
- P2 11:15LAKJarret StollGWGAssists: Trevor Lewis, Alec Martinez · Backhand, 0.11 xG1–3
- P2 13:45LAKKyle CliffordAssists: Dustin Penner, Colin Fraser · Wrist, 0.47 xG1–4
- P2 18:56LAKDwight KingAssists: Jarret Stoll, Trevor Lewis · Snap, 0.06 xG1–5
- P3 19:10SJSMatt IrwinPPAssists: Brent Burns, Scott Gomez · Slap, 0.04 xG2–5
Penalties (5)
- P2 1:27SJSDouglas Murray: Fighting5 min
- P2 1:27LAKKyle Clifford: Fighting5 min
- P3 4:44LAKColin Fraser: Hooking2 min
- P3 15:14SJSBrent Burns: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P3 19:06LAKKyle Clifford: Interference2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Marleau won the faceoff against Kopitar
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestMarleau – Clowe – Pavelski3:02
xG 0.35–0.11 (77%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
- Handzus – Burish – Sheppard3:17
xG 0.10–0.02 (83%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Handzus – Burish – Desjardins4:04
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–0goals 0–0
- Marleau – Burish – Couture3:06
xG 0.00–0.10 (0%)attempts 0–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBoyle – Irwin8:19
xG 0.20–0.14 (59%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Boyle – Vlasic5:20
xG 0.05–0.03 (66%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Braun – Irwin3:59
xG 0.03–0.06 (34%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestFraser – Penner – Clifford7:29
xG 0.52–0.20 (72%)attempts 3–7goals 1–0
- Stoll – Lewis – King15:36
xG 0.57–0.40 (59%)attempts 14–15goals 2–0
- Williams – Brown – Kopitar13:12
xG 0.51–0.41 (56%)attempts 19–10goals 1–1
- Carter – Richards – Toffoli11:06
xG 0.41–0.38 (52%)attempts 10–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMuzzin – Doughty18:03
xG 1.06–0.35 (75%)attempts 22–11goals 2–0
- Martinez – Ellerby14:08
xG 0.41–0.14 (75%)attempts 7–11goals 2–0
- Scuderi – Voynov17:08
xG 0.88–0.81 (52%)attempts 19–23goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
LAK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line LAK is favoured, below it SJS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 63% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (LAK − SJS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).