Sun, Mar 17, 2013·Scotiabank Place, Ottawa
Winnipeg Jets 1, Ottawa Senators 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 82% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPG | 06 | 010 | 110 | 126 |
| OTT | 219 | 012 | 211 | 442 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:44OTTGuillaume LatendresseAssists: Daniel Alfredsson, Zack Smith · Wrist, 0.15 xG0–1
- P1 18:39OTTJakob SilfverbergPPGWGAssists: Sergei Gonchar, Chris Neil · Wrist, 0.06 xG0–2
- P3 3:26WPGZach BogosianAssists: Ron Hainsey, Andrew Ladd · Slap, 0.03 xG1–2
- P3 11:30OTTKyle TurrisPPAssists: Daniel Alfredsson, Sergei Gonchar · Slap, 0.04 xG1–3
- P3 12:45OTTJakob SilfverbergAssists: Mika Zibanejad, Andre Benoit · Wrist, 0.15 xG1–4
Penalties (7)
- P1 9:59WPGBlake Wheeler: Slashing2 min
- P1 17:42WPGChris Thorburn: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 8:56OTTMika Zibanejad: Tripping2 min
- P3 5:48OTTKyle Turris: Tripping2 min
- P3 8:03WPGDustin Byfuglien: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P3 10:49WPGRon Hainsey: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P3 16:06OTTEric Gryba: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Little won the faceoff against Turris
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- Ladd – Wheeler – Little11:43
xG 0.47–0.55 (46%)attempts 14–11goals 1–0
- Jokinen – Miettinen – Kane12:17
xG 0.26–0.41 (39%)attempts 7–10goals 0–1
- Thorburn – Tangradi – Cormier3:00
xG 0.12–0.28 (30%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
- Antropov – Wellwood – Wright11:25
xG 0.40–1.35 (23%)attempts 6–18goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Meech – Byfuglien2:31
xG 0.11–0.15 (42%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Meech – Stuart11:00
xG 0.16–0.22 (43%)attempts 4–8goals 0–0
- Byfuglien – Clitsome15:06
xG 0.79–0.93 (46%)attempts 14–14goals 0–1
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestNeil – Condra – Zibanejad7:32
xG 0.69–0.27 (72%)attempts 10–5goals 0–0
- Alfredsson – Latendresse – Smith9:41
xG 0.48–0.19 (72%)attempts 9–3goals 1–0
- Greening – Turris – Silfverberg10:06
xG 0.63–0.48 (57%)attempts 13–14goals 0–1
- Regin – Kassian – O'Brien6:00
xG 0.14–0.17 (46%)attempts 9–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPhillips – Benoit10:08
xG 1.34–0.38 (78%)attempts 20–10goals 1–1
- Gonchar – Wiercioch12:29
xG 0.93–0.55 (63%)attempts 14–9goals 0–0
- Methot – Gryba16:36
xG 0.58–0.41 (59%)attempts 14–12goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it WPG. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 82% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − WPG), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).