Mon, Mar 18, 2013·Pepsi Center, Denver
Chicago Blackhawks 5, Colorado Avalanche 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 61% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHI | 211 | 211 | 110 | 532 |
| COL | 16 | 19 | 04 | 219 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:47CHIJimmy HayesAssists: Patrick Kane · Backhand, 0.16 xG1–0
- P1 4:44CHIAndrew ShawAssists: Viktor Stalberg, Bryan Bickell · Wrist, 0.12 xG2–0
- P1 19:26COLGabriel LandeskogSHAssists: Matt Duchene · Wrist, 0.11 xG2–1
- P2 7:49CHIPatrick KaneGWGAssists: Jonathan Toews, Duncan Keith · Wrist, 0.07 xG3–1
- P2 14:40CHIBrent SeabrookAssists: Patrick Kane, Jonathan Toews · Slap, 0.07 xG4–1
- P2 18:34COLMilan HejdukAssists: John Mitchell, Semyon Varlamov · Wrist, 0.06 xG4–2
- P3 16:30CHIJonathan ToewsAssists: Brandon Saad, Brent Seabrook · Wrist, 0.03 xG5–2
Penalties (2)
- P1 18:29COLGreg Zanon: Hooking2 min
- P2 16:20CHIMarcus Kruger: Holding the stick2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00O'Reilly won the faceoff against Toews
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestToews – Kane – Saad6:52
xG 0.62–0.03 (95%)attempts 14–2goals 3–0
- Bolland – Kane – Hayes11:01
xG 0.47–0.12 (80%)attempts 7–5goals 1–0
- Bickell – Stalberg – Shaw12:49
xG 0.34–0.28 (55%)attempts 12–7goals 0–1
- Frolik – Kruger – Bollig10:20
xG 0.12–0.12 (50%)attempts 10–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestRozsival – Leddy14:40
xG 0.72–0.18 (80%)attempts 15–6goals 1–0
- Keith – Seabrook11:49
xG 0.54–0.43 (56%)attempts 14–7goals 2–0
- Keith – Hjalmarsson2:06
xG 0.10–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestHejduk – Mitchell – Stastny4:19
xG 0.16–0.07 (69%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Palushaj – O'Reilly – Landeskog8:37
xG 0.47–0.52 (48%)attempts 11–10goals 0–1
- Hejduk – Kobasew – McLeod2:12
xG 0.00–0.16 (0%)attempts 0–5goals 0–0
- Mitchell – Jones – Stastny9:50
xG 0.18–0.38 (32%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHejda – O'Brien14:42
xG 0.40–0.29 (58%)attempts 12–9goals 0–1
- O'Byrne – Hunwick17:53
xG 0.42–0.76 (36%)attempts 10–17goals 0–0
- Zanon – Johnson18:10
xG 0.39–0.74 (35%)attempts 12–23goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it CHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 61% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − CHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).