Mon, Mar 18, 2013·Rogers Arena, Vancouver
Minnesota Wild 3, Vancouver Canucks 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 77% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 08 | 110 | 27 | 325 |
| VAN | 010 | 114 | 012 | 136 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 10:18VANHenrik SedinPPAssists: Daniel Sedin, Jason Garrison · Wrist, 0.26 xG0–1
- P2 15:06MINJonas BrodinPPAssists: Dany Heatley, Pierre-Marc Bouchard · Slap, 0.06 xG1–1
- P3 3:20MINCharlie CoyleGWGAssists: Clayton Stoner, Mikko Koivu · Deflected, 0.10 xG2–1
- P3 9:17MINMatt CullenAssists: Devin Setoguchi, Pierre-Marc Bouchard · Wrist, 0.10 xG3–1
Penalties (8)
- P1 6:05MINJason Zucker: Hooking2 min
- P1 11:41MINRyan Suter: Cross checking2 min
- P2 9:33MINDevin Setoguchi: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 11:32VANKevin Bieksa: Roughing2 min
- P2 13:24VANHenrik Sedin: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 13:13MINDevin Setoguchi: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 19:42VANAlexandre Burrows: Slashing2 min
- P3 19:42MINRyan Suter: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Lapierre won the faceoff against Brodziak
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestHeatley – Brodziak – Clutterbuck9:10
xG 0.28–0.16 (63%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- Cullen – Bouchard – Setoguchi9:14
xG 0.11–0.20 (37%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
- Koivu – Parise – Coyle11:33
xG 0.39–0.52 (43%)attempts 10–14goals 1–0
- Konopka – Mitchell – Zucker8:10
xG 0.10–0.43 (19%)attempts 4–16goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Falk – Prosser12:10
xG 0.33–0.29 (53%)attempts 12–13goals 1–0
- Stoner – Spurgeon12:16
xG 0.28–0.47 (38%)attempts 7–17goals 1–0
- Suter – Brodin21:09
xG 0.49–0.85 (37%)attempts 13–25goals 0–0
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestSedin – Sedin – Burrows12:16
xG 0.61–0.23 (73%)attempts 20–8goals 0–0
- Sestito – Weise – Schroeder7:42
xG 0.34–0.10 (77%)attempts 11–5goals 0–0
- Hansen – Raymond – Ebbett9:23
xG 0.30–0.11 (72%)attempts 12–3goals 0–1
- Higgins – Lapierre – Pinizzotto10:38
xG 0.12–0.35 (26%)attempts 5–9goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestHamhuis – Garrison11:12
xG 0.63–0.24 (72%)attempts 18–7goals 0–1
- Bieksa – Edler15:02
xG 0.42–0.24 (64%)attempts 14–9goals 0–0
- Ballard – Tanev13:32
xG 0.41–0.24 (63%)attempts 15–9goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VAN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VAN is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 77% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VAN − MIN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).