Mon, Mar 18, 2013·STAPLES Center, Los Angeles
Phoenix Coyotes 0, Los Angeles Kings 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 55% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHX | 09 | 09 | 09 | 027 |
| LAK | 110 | 110 | 29 | 429 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:01LAKJake MuzzinPPGWGAssists: Anze Kopitar, Justin Williams · Slap, 0.06 xG0–1
- P2 8:39LAKTyler ToffoliPPAssists: Jeff Carter, Jarret Stoll · Wrist, 0.21 xG0–2
- P3 6:22LAKAnze KopitarAssists: Justin Williams, Drew Doughty · Snap, 0.03 xG0–3
- P3 7:33LAKJeff CarterAssists: Tyler Toffoli, Rob Scuderi · Wrist, 0.05 xG0–4
Penalties (12)
- P1 4:40PHXMartin Hanzal: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P1 9:13PHXDavid Moss: Interference2 min
- P1 12:46LAKKyle Clifford: High sticking2 min
- P2 2:00LAKTrevor Lewis: High sticking2 min
- P2 2:55PHXRaffi Torres: Interference2 min
- P2 7:38PHXOliver Ekman-Larsson: Delaying game2 min · PPG
- P2 13:16PHXPaul Bissonnette: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 13:16LAKKyle Clifford: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 18:00PHXMartin Hanzal: Boarding2 min
- P3 3:40LAKJake Muzzin: Tripping2 min
- P3 9:57PHXLauri Korpikoski: High sticking2 min
- P3 19:02LAKKeaton Ellerby: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Vermette won the faceoff against Richards
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Phoenix Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestVermette – Moss – Korpikoski7:32
xG 0.48–0.14 (78%)attempts 13–5goals 0–0
- Sullivan – Hanzal – Boedker9:17
xG 0.28–0.25 (53%)attempts 5–7goals 0–1
- Gordon – Bissonnette – Chipchura4:34
xG 0.08–0.10 (44%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Doan – Torres – Lombardi10:32
xG 0.19–0.71 (21%)attempts 7–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSchlemko – Stone5:56
xG 0.36–0.14 (72%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Klesla – Stone3:36
xG 0.07–0.04 (67%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Morris – Yandle16:22
xG 0.40–0.46 (46%)attempts 16–15goals 0–0
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestStoll – Lewis – King8:07
xG 0.52–0.08 (86%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Fraser – Penner – Clifford7:08
xG 0.32–0.05 (86%)attempts 12–3goals 0–0
- Williams – Brown – Kopitar11:15
xG 0.53–0.53 (50%)attempts 10–8goals 1–0
- Carter – Richards – Toffoli8:23
xG 0.22–0.61 (26%)attempts 7–14goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestMartinez – Ellerby10:07
xG 0.33–0.09 (79%)attempts 11–7goals 0–0
- Muzzin – Doughty12:53
xG 0.61–0.62 (49%)attempts 11–11goals 1–0
- Scuderi – Voynov12:00
xG 0.38–0.71 (35%)attempts 10–16goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
LAK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line LAK is favoured, below it PHX. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 55% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (LAK − PHX), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).