Tue, Mar 19, 2013·STAPLES Center, Los Angeles
Phoenix Coyotes 2, Los Angeles Kings 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Phoenix Coyotes win this game 68% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHX | 015 | 010 | 217 | 242 |
| LAK | 110 | 110 | 19 | 329 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 14:38LAKDustin PennerAssists: Justin Williams, Anze Kopitar · Tip-in, 0.17 xG0–1
- P2 6:28LAKDrew DoughtyAssists: Jake Muzzin, Mike Richards · Slap, 0.03 xG0–2
- P3 11:28PHXShane DoanAssists: Keith Yandle, Derek Morris · Tip-in, 0.09 xG1–2
- P3 13:46LAKJarret StollPPGWGAssists: Mike Richards, Alec Martinez · Snap, 0.06 xG1–3
- P3 19:19PHXShane DoanAssists: Mikkel Boedker, Raffi Torres · Slap, 0.08 xG2–3
Penalties (11)
- P1 17:45LAKColin Fraser: Hooking2 min
- P1 19:41PHXMatthew Lombardi: Tripping2 min
- P2 10:18PHXDerek Morris: Holding2 min
- P2 18:59LAKJarret Stoll: Slashing2 min
- P3 5:35LAKTyler Toffoli: Holding2 min
- P3 10:36PHXAntoine Vermette: Roughing2 min
- P3 11:18LAKMike Richards: High sticking2 min
- P3 12:04PHXDerek Morris: Interference2 min · PPG
- P3 15:07PHXSteve Sullivan: Cross checking2 min
- P3 0:00PHXRaffi Torres: Roughing2 min
- P3 0:00LAKDrew Doughty: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Vermette won the faceoff against Kopitar
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Phoenix Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestDoan – Vermette – Boedker11:39
xG 1.07–0.40 (73%)attempts 18–9goals 0–1
- Vrbata – Korpikoski – Hanzal6:04
xG 0.55–0.08 (88%)attempts 8–2goals 0–0
- Gordon – Chipchura – Klinkhammer5:39
xG 0.33–0.12 (73%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Torres – Lombardi – Korpikoski2:12
xG 0.19–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSchlemko – Ekman-Larsson14:57
xG 1.35–0.24 (85%)attempts 23–5goals 0–0
- Morris – Yandle16:13
xG 1.28–0.80 (62%)attempts 21–14goals 0–1
- Klesla – Stone8:49
xG 0.28–0.29 (49%)attempts 10–9goals 0–1
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- Fraser – Penner – Clifford3:09
xG 0.40–0.37 (52%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Stoll – Lewis – King7:29
xG 0.05–0.48 (10%)attempts 3–8goals 0–0
- Carter – Richards – Toffoli7:55
xG 0.28–0.85 (25%)attempts 10–14goals 1–0
- Williams – Brown – Kopitar10:05
xG 0.32–0.97 (25%)attempts 6–15goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Martinez – Ellerby11:07
xG 0.61–0.70 (46%)attempts 10–13goals 0–0
- Scuderi – Doughty2:04
xG 0.00–0.19 (0%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Muzzin – Doughty14:50
xG 0.96–1.18 (45%)attempts 16–16goals 2–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
LAK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line LAK is favoured, below it PHX. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Phoenix Coyotes win this game 68% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (LAK − PHX), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).