Wed, Mar 20, 2013·Honda Center, Anaheim
Chicago Blackhawks 2, Anaheim Ducks 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 82% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHI | 15 | 111 | 08 | 224 |
| ANA | 111 | 07 | 38 | 426 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:24ANAPeter HollandAssists: Luca Sbisa, Daniel Winnik · Wrist, 0.10 xG0–1
- P1 3:52CHIJonathan ToewsSHUnassisted · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–1
- P2 11:54CHINick LeddyPPAssists: Patrick Kane, Brandon Saad · Slap, 0.04 xG2–1
- P3 14:33ANABobby RyanAssists: Ryan Getzlaf, Kyle Palmieri · Tip-in, 0.26 xG2–2
- P3 15:37ANATeemu SelanneGWGAssists: Ryan Getzlaf · Wrist, 0.08 xG2–3
- P3 19:39ANASheldon SourayENAssists: Jonas Hiller · Wrist, 0.43 xG2–4
Penalties (3)
- P1 2:56CHIBrandon Bollig: Interference2 min
- P2 2:21ANAToni Lydman: Interference2 min
- P2 10:29ANASheldon Souray: Holding2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Selanne won the faceoff against Toews
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestFrolik – Kruger – Bollig9:10
xG 0.23–0.08 (73%)attempts 11–4goals 0–0
- Bickell – Stalberg – Shaw9:01
xG 0.16–0.30 (36%)attempts 8–10goals 0–0
- Bolland – Kane – Hayes11:25
xG 0.25–0.62 (29%)attempts 7–10goals 0–2
- Toews – Kane – Saad9:04
xG 0.19–0.67 (22%)attempts 7–11goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestKeith – Seabrook17:31
xG 0.71–0.28 (72%)attempts 22–8goals 0–1
- Brookbank – Keith2:55
xG 0.04–0.10 (29%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Oduya – Hjalmarsson15:44
xG 0.31–0.77 (29%)attempts 13–14goals 0–1
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestSelanne – Getzlaf – Ryan10:07
xG 0.56–0.28 (67%)attempts 10–9goals 1–0
- Palmieri – Holland – Etem9:40
xG 0.29–0.08 (78%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
- Selanne – Koivu – Winnik4:08
xG 0.12–0.05 (71%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Ryan – Palmieri – Holland2:02
xG 0.00–0.05 (0%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSouray – Beauchemin16:08
xG 0.81–0.30 (73%)attempts 16–11goals 2–0
- Lydman – Fowler18:19
xG 0.63–0.31 (67%)attempts 16–15goals 0–0
- Allen – Sbisa16:34
xG 0.62–0.45 (58%)attempts 13–13goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ANA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ANA is favoured, below it CHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 82% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ANA − CHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).