Thu, Mar 21, 2013·Nassau Veterans Memorial Coliseum, Uniondale
Montréal Canadiens 5, New York Islanders 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 59% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 110 | 19 | 310 | 529 |
| NYI | 110 | 110 | 07 | 227 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:36MTLMichael RyderPPAssists: Andrei Markov, Tomas Plekanec · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–0
- P1 12:06NYIJohn TavaresAssists: Matt Moulson · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–1
- P2 6:58NYILubomir VisnovskyAssists: Matt Moulson, Brad Boyes · Wrist, 0.18 xG1–2
- P2 10:53MTLP.K. SubbanPPAssists: Tomas Plekanec · Slap, 0.03 xG2–2
- P3 0:48MTLBrian GiontaGWGAssists: David Desharnais · Tip-in, 0.20 xG3–2
- P3 10:10MTLP.K. SubbanAssists: Max Pacioretty, Gabriel Dumont · Wrist, 0.41 xG4–2
- P3 10:43MTLBrendan GallagherAssists: Max Pacioretty, David Desharnais · Backhand, 0.30 xG5–2
Penalties (8)
- P1 8:54NYIMark Streit: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P2 0:57MTLMichael Ryder: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 9:26NYIMichael Grabner: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 12:24MTLGabriel Dumont: Roughing2 min
- P2 17:45NYIMatt Carkner: Roughing2 min
- P3 5:37NYIKeith Aucoin: Diving2 min
- P3 17:02MTLGabriel Dumont: Tripping2 min
- P3 18:46MTLTravis Moen: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Tavares won the faceoff against Plekanec
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestDesharnais – Pacioretty – Gallagher10:08
xG 1.05–0.13 (89%)attempts 9–8goals 2–0
- Moen – White – Dumont3:38
xG 0.14–0.01 (95%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Pacioretty – Eller – Gallagher2:03
xG 0.07–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Eller – Dumont – Galchenyuk4:05
xG 0.08–0.06 (57%)attempts 1–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGorges – Subban13:53
xG 1.17–0.13 (90%)attempts 18–5goals 2–0
- Markov – Emelin14:30
xG 0.77–0.55 (58%)attempts 9–20goals 1–0
- Bouillon – Tinordi11:22
xG 0.39–0.47 (45%)attempts 9–8goals 0–0
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- Aucoin – McDonald – Cizikas9:36
xG 0.60–0.63 (49%)attempts 9–8goals 0–1
- Nielsen – Okposo – Bailey12:28
xG 0.14–0.24 (37%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
- Reasoner – Grabner – Martin8:19
xG 0.04–0.36 (10%)attempts 4–9goals 0–0
- Boyes – Moulson – Tavares12:05
xG 0.53–0.90 (37%)attempts 13–10goals 2–2
Defence pairs
- Carkner – Streit12:00
xG 0.32–0.40 (45%)attempts 8–12goals 0–0
- Visnovsky – Hickey11:49
xG 0.41–0.56 (42%)attempts 6–9goals 2–1
- MacDonald – Hamonic16:13
xG 0.52–0.85 (38%)attempts 15–13goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 59% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYI − MTL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).