Thu, Mar 21, 2013·Madison Square Garden, New York
Florida Panthers 3, New York Rangers 1
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 52% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 17 | 19 | 18 | 324 |
| NYR | 012 | 015 | 118 | 145 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:22FLABrian CampbellPPAssists: TJ Brennan, Jonathan Huberdeau · Slap, 0.05 xG1–0
- P2 4:28FLAScottie UpshallGWGAssists: Jack Skille, Shawn Matthias · Wrist, 0.39 xG2–0
- P3 16:12NYRMarian GaborikAssists: Rick Nash, Michael Del Zotto · Backhand, 0.11 xG2–1
- P3 19:14FLATomas KopeckyENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.46 xG3–1
Penalties (5)
- P1 7:56NYRRoman Hamrlik: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P1 16:39FLATyson Strachan: Hooking2 min
- P2 6:36FLAMarcel Goc: Interference2 min
- P3 8:43NYRDerek Stepan: Tripping2 min
- P3 18:58FLATomas Fleischmann: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Stepan won the faceoff against Goc
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestUpshall – Skille – Matthias12:44
xG 0.74–0.52 (58%)attempts 9–11goals 1–0
- Smithson – Santorelli – Howden4:52
xG 0.16–0.10 (61%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Smithson – Mueller – Huberdeau2:12
xG 0.06–0.03 (64%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
- Mueller – Shore – Huberdeau9:34
xG 0.23–0.22 (50%)attempts 7–14goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKuba – Gudbranson17:13
xG 0.93–0.63 (60%)attempts 11–18goals 1–1
- Brennan – Robak10:01
xG 0.23–0.52 (30%)attempts 8–19goals 0–0
- Campbell – Strachan21:46
xG 0.50–0.82 (38%)attempts 15–26goals 0–0
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestBoyle – Kreider – Miller10:10
xG 0.52–0.21 (71%)attempts 19–7goals 0–0
- Callahan – Hagelin – Stepan18:13
xG 0.46–0.43 (51%)attempts 19–14goals 0–0
- Richards – Gaborik – Nash14:45
xG 0.67–0.85 (44%)attempts 20–9goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestHamrlik – Stralman9:42
xG 0.50–0.14 (78%)attempts 10–6goals 0–0
- Girardi – McDonagh19:36
xG 0.57–0.40 (59%)attempts 23–13goals 0–0
- Girardi – Del Zotto2:40
xG 0.11–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYR is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 52% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYR − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).