Thu, Mar 21, 2013·PNC Arena, Raleigh
New Jersey Devils 4, Carolina Hurricanes 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 74% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJD | 15 | 212 | 16 | 423 |
| CAR | 011 | 03 | 14 | 118 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:54NJDMartin BrodeurPPUnassisted · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–0
- P2 12:52NJDAdam HenriqueGWGAssists: Ilya Kovalchuk, Adam Larsson · Snap, 0.26 xG2–0
- P2 13:38NJDPeter HarroldAssists: Patrik Elias, Travis Zajac · Backhand, 0.13 xG3–0
- P3 11:27CARJeff SkinnerPPAssists: Eric Staal, Jordan Staal · Slap, 0.02 xG3–1
- P3 16:54NJDAndrei LoktionovPPAssists: Steve Bernier, Travis Zajac · Backhand, 0.10 xG4–1
Penalties (11)
- P1 3:33CARAlexander Semin: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P1 3:54NJDMarek Zidlicky: Hooking2 min
- P2 12:59CARBrett Bellemore: Roughing2 min
- P2 12:59NJDRyan Carter: Roughing2 min
- P3 1:52CARJiri Tlusty: High sticking2 min
- P3 10:45NJDHarri Pesonen: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 15:36CAREric Staal: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 19:09NJDTim Sestito: Roughing2 min
- P3 19:09NJDAdam Henrique: Roughing2 min
- P3 19:09CARPatrick Dwyer: Roughing2 min
- P3 19:09CARJeff Skinner: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Gionta won the faceoff against Brent
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestBernier – Gionta – Carter11:19
xG 0.22–0.11 (65%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
- Elias – Clarkson – Zajac11:30
xG 0.33–0.33 (50%)attempts 6–13goals 0–0
- Kostopoulos – Sestito – Pesonen6:19
xG 0.12–0.19 (38%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Kovalchuk – Henrique – Loktionov10:37
xG 0.38–0.89 (30%)attempts 13–13goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestVolchenkov – Harrold12:10
xG 0.34–0.14 (70%)attempts 10–8goals 0–0
- Salvador – Zidlicky17:29
xG 0.39–0.28 (58%)attempts 15–13goals 0–0
- Greene – Harrold3:29
xG 0.05–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestSemin – Staal – Tlusty7:30
xG 0.31–0.10 (77%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
- Dwyer – Staal – Skinner6:01
xG 0.49–0.32 (61%)attempts 5–10goals 0–1
- Dwyer – Tlusty – Nash5:19
xG 0.01–0.02 (33%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
- Hall – Ruutu – Brent7:38
xG 0.01–0.04 (21%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Sanguinetti – Bellemore5:58
xG 0.21–0.17 (55%)attempts 4–7goals 0–0
- Pitkanen – McBain19:21
xG 0.44–0.42 (51%)attempts 19–17goals 0–0
- Gleason – Bellemore3:57
xG 0.03–0.08 (27%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it NJD. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 74% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CAR − NJD), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).