Thu, Mar 21, 2013·MTS Centre, Winnipeg
Washington Capitals 4, Winnipeg Jets 0
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 53% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 210 | 03 | 212 | 425 |
| WPG | 08 | 04 | 08 | 020 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:06WSHTroy BrouwerGWGAssists: Brooks Laich · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–0
- P1 16:22WSHMarcus JohanssonAssists: Alex Ovechkin · Tip-in, 0.12 xG2–0
- P3 14:06WSHAlex OvechkinPPAssists: Nicklas Backstrom, John Carlson · Snap, 0.21 xG3–0
- P3 18:22WSHNicklas BackstromAssists: Alex Ovechkin, Marcus Johansson · Slap, 0.04 xG4–0
Penalties (9)
- P1 18:32WSHSteve Oleksy: Fighting5 min
- P1 18:32WPGJames Wright: Fighting5 min
- P2 16:55WSHJack Hillen: Tripping2 min
- P3 1:36WPGDustin Byfuglien: Tripping2 min
- P3 4:09WSHSteve Oleksy: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 11:14WSHSteve Oleksy: Tripping2 min
- P3 12:43WPGOndrej Pavelec: Delaying game2 min · PPG
- P3 19:02WPGEvander Kane: Cross checking2 min
- P3 19:02WPGEvander Kane: Misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Jokinen won the faceoff against Ribeiro
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestOvechkin – Backstrom – Johansson13:39
xG 0.57–0.32 (64%)attempts 11–13goals 2–0
- Ribeiro – Laich – Brouwer10:14
xG 0.45–0.29 (61%)attempts 10–4goals 1–0
- Ward – Hendricks – Beagle9:15
xG 0.13–0.05 (72%)attempts 2–8goals 0–0
- Chimera – Fehr – Perreault9:00
xG 0.46–0.41 (53%)attempts 8–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHillen – Carlson14:55
xG 0.88–0.09 (91%)attempts 14–10goals 1–0
- Green – Orlov13:20
xG 0.53–0.65 (45%)attempts 14–12goals 2–0
- Alzner – Oleksy14:56
xG 0.20–0.51 (29%)attempts 5–14goals 0–0
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestJokinen – Miettinen – Kane9:52
xG 0.52–0.21 (71%)attempts 7–2goals 0–1
- Antropov – Wellwood – Ladd2:12
xG 0.14–0.01 (92%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Antropov – Wellwood – Wright4:50
xG 0.02–0.10 (16%)attempts 2–7goals 0–0
- Antropov – Wellwood – Kane2:29
xG 0.01–0.11 (6%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMeech – Byfuglien2:45
xG 0.25–0.04 (86%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Byfuglien – Clitsome9:05
xG 0.33–0.17 (66%)attempts 7–6goals 0–1
- Stuart – Bogosian2:22
xG 0.19–0.14 (59%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WPG's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WPG is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 53% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WPG − WSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).