Thu, Mar 21, 2013·STAPLES Center, Los Angeles
Dallas Stars 2, Los Angeles Kings 0
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 84% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 05 | 010 | 26 | 221 |
| LAK | 012 | 018 | 010 | 040 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P3 6:34DALJaromir JagrGWGAssists: Jamie Benn · Backhand, 0.20 xG1–0
- P3 10:56DALRay WhitneyAssists: Alex Goligoski, Loui Eriksson · Slap, 0.07 xG2–0
Penalties (5)
- P1 3:12DALStephane Robidas: Holding2 min
- P1 14:36DALBrenden Morrow: Boarding2 min
- P1 18:07LAKDustin Brown: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P3 2:36LAKDrew Doughty: Interference2 min
- P3 13:03DALEric Nystrom: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Benn won the faceoff against Stoll
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestJagr – Nystrom – Benn4:01
xG 0.37–0.17 (69%)attempts 3–2goals 1–0
- Whitney – Eriksson – Eakin2:02
xG 0.07–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 1–0
- Fiddler – Roussel – Vincour2:08
xG 0.04–0.02 (70%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Jagr – Roussel – Eakin5:57
xG 0.20–0.36 (36%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Larsen – Benn9:15
xG 0.44–0.39 (53%)attempts 13–6goals 0–0
- Robidas – Dillon16:55
xG 0.54–0.76 (41%)attempts 8–13goals 0–0
- Daley – Goligoski16:36
xG 0.39–0.95 (29%)attempts 12–21goals 2–0
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestStoll – Lewis – King10:46
xG 0.86–0.26 (77%)attempts 13–6goals 0–0
- Williams – Brown – Kopitar14:25
xG 0.65–0.32 (67%)attempts 13–5goals 0–2
- Carter – Richards – Penner10:45
xG 0.52–0.38 (58%)attempts 13–11goals 0–0
- Fraser – Clifford – Nolan7:34
xG 0.26–0.14 (65%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMuzzin – Doughty17:01
xG 1.26–0.50 (72%)attempts 23–11goals 0–1
- Martinez – Ellerby8:50
xG 0.41–0.27 (61%)attempts 9–4goals 0–0
- Scuderi – Voynov14:19
xG 0.39–0.36 (52%)attempts 11–17goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
LAK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line LAK is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 84% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (LAK − DAL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).