Fri, Mar 22, 2013·Nassau Veterans Memorial Coliseum, Uniondale
Pittsburgh Penguins 4, New York Islanders 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 50% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 03 | 214 | 28 | 425 |
| NYI | 114 | 114 | 07 | 235 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:46NYIMark StreitAssists: Matt Carkner, Frans Nielsen · Slap, 0.03 xG0–1
- P2 8:11PITJoe VitaleAssists: Craig Adams, Simon Despres · Wrist, 0.13 xG1–1
- P2 17:18NYIJosh BaileyAssists: John Tavares, Travis Hamonic · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–2
- P2 19:46PITChris KunitzAssists: Sidney Crosby, Pascal Dupuis · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–2
- P3 1:46PITBrandon SutterGWGAssists: Matt Cooke, James Neal · Snap, 0.21 xG3–2
- P3 19:59PITPascal DupuisENAssists: Sidney Crosby, Tomas Vokoun · Wrist, 0.68 xG4–2
Penalties (6)
- P1 3:31NYIMatt Martin: Fighting5 min
- P1 3:31PITCraig Adams: Fighting5 min
- P1 19:04NYIMatt Martin: Holding2 min
- P3 12:27PITPascal Dupuis: Hooking2 min
- P3 14:08NYIJosh Bailey: Interference2 min
- P3 16:39PITBrooks Orpik: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Crosby won the faceoff against Nielsen
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestCooke – Neal – Sutter12:10
xG 0.75–0.50 (60%)attempts 14–11goals 1–0
- Adams – Glass – Vitale7:06
xG 0.24–0.35 (41%)attempts 6–7goals 1–0
- Smith – Jeffrey – Bennett7:59
xG 0.09–0.46 (17%)attempts 2–8goals 0–0
- Dupuis – Kunitz – Crosby13:40
xG 0.63–1.18 (35%)attempts 21–22goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- Orpik – Martin16:58
xG 1.04–1.06 (49%)attempts 21–21goals 2–1
- Engelland – Despres5:24
xG 0.09–0.24 (27%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
- Niskanen – Despres9:24
xG 0.08–0.33 (19%)attempts 4–7goals 0–0
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestReasoner – Martin – Cizikas7:20
xG 0.63–0.20 (76%)attempts 9–8goals 0–0
- Nielsen – Okposo – Bailey13:13
xG 0.82–0.78 (51%)attempts 14–16goals 1–0
- Aucoin – McDonald – Grabner9:38
xG 0.39–0.44 (47%)attempts 13–7goals 0–1
- Boyes – Moulson – Tavares11:28
xG 0.36–0.44 (45%)attempts 13–10goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestVisnovsky – Finley11:48
xG 0.87–0.18 (83%)attempts 12–8goals 0–0
- Carkner – Streit17:22
xG 0.88–0.49 (64%)attempts 28–13goals 1–1
- MacDonald – Hamonic17:27
xG 1.03–1.15 (47%)attempts 19–25goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 50% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYI − PIT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).